The Miami Dolphins are in Buffalo to take on the Bills in Week 9, and no one is giving them a chance to win, but this is the NFL, and anything can happen.
OK, it is the NFL, but we all know that, as Dolphins fans, it takes a lot for something to just "happen" for Miami. What will it take for the Dolphins to find another "Miami Miracle" game?
A lot, if we are being honest. No, I don't expect the Dolphins to leave Buffalo with a win, but I do think there are four ways they can actually pull off an upset.
It won't be easy and will take a total team effort, but if Miami can do these things, the Bills will fall to 6-3, and the Dolphins will remain within clawing distance of the wild-card spots.
Ball control is the first key for the Dolphins to stop the Bills
The Bills are not going to light up the scoreboard with quick-hit passes that go for 60-yard touchdowns. They are a methodical "take what you get" type of offense, typically leading to longer drives. If the Dolphins want to combat that, they need to do the same.
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Forget going too deep to Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. Tua Tagovailoa has to be patient and nickel-and-dime the defense for 4-5 yards per play. Building 10-plus-play drives is important because the flow stays with the Dolphins and gives the defense time to catch its breath. They also wear defenses out, which the Dolphins are not doing this year.
Of course, there could be an unexpected clearing of clouds and a scorching hot sun that also wears down Josh Allen.
Dolphins have to keep their hands off Josh Allen when he doesn't have the ball
It may sound like one of those "well, of course," type of things, but the Dolphins and just about every other NFL team will give Allen a little shove after he throws the ball. Allen then flops to the ground, and out comes a penalty flag. The refs do this every time. If the Dolphins want to hit him after he releases, then hit him hard and let him know he doesn't need to flop.
The point here is it's not just Allen. Reducing the penalties on defense is an absolute must. The Dolphins are still giving up free yards with holding or pass-interference calls at the wrong time. Play smart football. Get pressure on Allen, contain him, and make him throw bad passes. Do that, and you reduce the Bills to a run game that can be more focused on.
Stopping James Cook is something they didn't do in Week 2
James Cook accounted for three touchdowns when the teams first met in Week 2. The Dolphins have to do a better job of stopping the Bills from moving the ball. Buffalo will come out and try to establish control of the ground game. They are more physical than the Dolphins at the point of attack, and the depleted defensive line is ripe for the Bills to exploit.
Miami's linebackers are not great, which presents more problems for defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver. The Bills can gut the Dolphins' defense if they don't play it tight inside. If this happens, it will be a long day for the Dolphins but a short one for fans, who will watch the clock tick off quickly. Stopping Allen is important, but it's the Bills' running game that will give Miami more of a problem (including Allen running the ball).
Mike McDaniel has to present a game plan Bills have not seen before
Let's see if we can figure out McDaniel's offense. Tagovailoa takes two steps back and throws a slant to Hill. He takes two steps back and throws to Waddle. He hands it off on a run outside, throws a WR screen, a bubble pass, or does some fancy pitch or pass. So far, teams have figured out what he is going to do, and they are not worried about it.
McDaniel was supposed to be a master of motion, but defenses are no longer confused. Instead, they are crowding the line while playing two-deep safeties. They have eliminated the quick pass and are forcing the Dolphins to find another way to win. So far, they haven't.
The biggest issue is the line can't give Tua time in the pocket to let his receivers create opportunities downfield, and until they can, McDaniel seems confused about how to get his team involved. Maybe today, he uses something different. Maybe a two-step drop and a peel route for Jonnu Smith into the flats for four yards, or perhaps the Dolphins actually use Odell Beckham Jr. or Jaylen Wright more often.
Now, no, this was not written with a straight face, and no, the Dolphins are not going to walk out on the field Sunday and suddenly become the team they were supposed to be in 2024. But again, this is the NFL, and often, what no one expects is what happens. If the Dolphins want to win, they need to play like they want to.