Few truly believe that the concept of tanking is new in professional sports. You can go back decades and find teams in every league who were pretty obviously not putting their best foot forward (including the Miami Dolphins several times), instead setting their sights on a shiny new draft prospect they think will be their savior. The conversation has reached a fever pitch in recent times, with the analytics boom a driving force behind the movement.
As it relates to the Dolphins, many fans have wondered and worried that inking Malik Willis would effectively preclude the franchise from selecting their next quarterback by messing up their tanking efforts. Most would be more than okay with Willis proving to be the guy or the team bottoming out entirely and selecting first overall. That pesky middle ground is what keeps some up at night.
Here at the Phin Phanatic, we decided to take a deep dive into the subject from an analytical perspective. Is selecting first, second, or third paramount to finding a franchise quarterback? Is this the road most traveled for the NFL's most successful teams? These are the questions we aimed to answer.
The top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL in 2026 come from a variety of draft slots
When it comes to determining the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL, there's naturally going to be significant variance. People value players and skillsets differently, and it's ultimately a subjective exercise. To account for this and to remove bias from the sample, we gathered the top 10 quarterbacks from five unique sources using different methodologies.
Starting with ESPN's recently published list that gives us an idea of where NFL executives and coaches stand on the matter, we also compiled the top 10 according to NFL passer rating, PFF Grade, ESPN's QBR metric (ESPN's proprietary quarterback efficiency metric), and EA Sports' Madden ratings. This gave us a loose group of 16 quarterbacks who are, by one source or another, "top 10."
We also averaged out the rankings to create a pseudo-ranking that combines all the groups. The top 10 (which ballooned to 16 due to the presence of some QBs in one metric but not another) is as follows:
1. Matthew Stafford (2.4), 2. Drake Maye (3.6), 3. Josh Allen (4), 4. Joe Burrow (5.4), 5. Lamar Jackson (6.6), T6. Dak Prescott and Jordan Love (7), T8. Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy (8.2), 10. Jared Goff (8.6), 11. Justin Herbert (9.2), 12. Daniel Jones (10), 13. Trevor Lawrence (10.4), T14. Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, and Mac Jones (10.8).
Of those 16 quarterbacks, five (or 31 percent) went first overall in their draft class. If we zoom out to the top three, it jumps slightly to seven (44 percent). The conclusion is clear and twofold: selecting a quarterback in the top three is no guarantee to deliver one of the league's top 16 QBs, and there is no imaginary barrier outside of the top three that precludes a team from finding an otherworldly signal-caller.
While it's not hard to see the logic behind having the pick of the litter seeming like it should lead to the optimal result, it ignores the simple reality that scouting is paramount in the NFL. In the draft class that featured league MVPs Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield went No. 1. Mayfield is a fine quarterback in his own right, but few would argue against the fact that Jackson or Allen should've been the top pick in a re-draft.
Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy weren't even drafted on Days 1 or 2. Luck is a real factor here, but using it as the end-all, be-all explanation diminishes all the scouting work that went into finding these players. That's precisely why they say fortune favors the prepared. So, fret not, Dolphins fans. Even if the team selects fifth (again) or seventh or 11th, there will be a chance to unearth the next great QB. Jon-Eric Sullivan and Co. just have to find him.
There is one sneaky trend unearthed by this analysis worth mentioning, however.
The hit rate on non-first-round quarterbacks is abysmally low
Even with a Mr. Irrelevant (Brock Purdy) weighing down the average draft slot of the 16 quarterbacks mentioned above, the average selection comes out to right about 32. This tells us that if a team is serious about getting a new QB, drafting them in the first round is almost always going to be the answer.
The concept of throwing darts in the mid- to late-rounds is excellent in theory, especially when you already have a bona fide franchise QB under center. Late-round picks provide insurance and represent an investment at the most valuable position in the sport. At the end of the day, though, if you're looking for a leader of your franchise, it's usually going to be a guy who the other 31 NFL franchises wouldn't let slip to the second round.
Regardless of how the 2026 season unfolds on the field for the Miami Dolphins, there will be an opportunity to find a standout player at any position in the draft. The hope remains that with the new regime comes sharper scouting acumen that will lead to more hits with the team's precious draft choices. In other words, it's not about where you pick — it's who.
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