The Miami Dolphins had an exotic journey through the NFL Draft toward the end of ex-GM Chris Grier's lengthy tenure.
Multiple bold trades for the likes of Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, and even the rights to Jaylen Waddle lost the Dolphins a whole host of future first-round picks. That has skewed their draft record and made it difficult to nail picks or evaluate draft classes in recent years.
All that said, in the 2024 draft, Miami stuck at its own spot and picked for a change in Round 1. It was a polarizing selection that's proven to be the on-field roller coaster many forecasted before the draft.
First-round pick Chop Robinson struggling to build on phenomenal Dolphins rookie season
With only 11.5 sacks in three seasons of Big Ten football, Chop Robinson was one of those athletic freak shows whose bottom-line production didn't match his physical tools. However, the Dolphins believed they could get all the potential out of Robinson once they got their hands on him.
Robinson rewarded Miami's faith in him almost right away. The light started to come on for the young phenom as the 2024 campaign wore on, and Robinson wound up with 56 QB pressures on the season, per PFF.
Especially for a rookie, that type of production is absurd. Robinson's 18.8% pass rush win rate from last year ranked sixth in the NFL. Guess who was ahead of him? You don't have to. I'll tell you.
Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, Trey Hendrickson, and Jared Verse. In that order. They were the only pass rushers with a higher win rate than Chop Robinson in 2024.
So what happened? This should've been the season where Robinson cemented his status as an All-Pro-caliber player. The Jaelan Phillips trade and Bradley Chubb's evident decline have presented Robinson with even more chances to strut his stuff. Instead, he's largely underwhelmed as an NFL sophomore.
Comparing the raw pass rush numbers to his rookie year, Robinson has taken a big step back. His pass rush win rate is down to 9.6%, so just about half of what it was. Only one sack and 11 QB pressures thus far, too.
Robinson was widely labeled a "project" coming out of Penn State. Weirdly, he exploded onto the scene and has regressed for mysterious reasons this season.
Can't say I recall a dreaded sophomore slump quite like this, at least involving an edge defender.
Dolphins' schedule presents opportunities for Chop Robinson to erupt
You know what's great? After this graphic came out to underscore Robinson's Year 2 regression, he came out in Week 8 against the Falcons and had three of his 11 pressures.
Hasn’t been mentioned much, but Chop Robinson is the player that really jumps for me. Great rookie year with Chubb & Phillips out (esp in the back half), but has faded into the background to start 2025. https://t.co/X9ygWq32DM
— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhardNFL) October 22, 2025
That sadly preceded a concussion against Baltimore the next week, which kept him out till the Madrid win over the Commanders. Robinson had two more pressures in that game.
So, in addition to trending up of late aside from the health setback, the good news for Robinson is there's still time to flip the script on his 2025 season as a whole. Much like the Dolphins were able to rally from 1-6 to 4-7 before the bye.
Miami's next couple of opponents are a huge source of optimism around Dolphins headquarters in general. The 2-9 New Orleans Saints are led by rookie second-round quarterback Tyler Shough, while the New York Jets have benched Justin Fields in favor of aging vet Tyrod Taylor.
Neither the Saints nor the Jets is set up for lots of success on offense. Their perimeter weapons aren't good enough to capitalize on a thin Dolphins secondary. Both Shough and Taylor are good athletes, but the former isn't known for tucking and running super often, and the latter is at the late stage of his career, where his legs aren't as explosive as they once were.
In other words, the circumstances are such that Robinson could easily break out for something like 3.5 sacks in the next two contests. It feels like only a matter of "when," not "if," Robinson starts showing that rookie-season form. But at least for the rest of this year, it's getting late early, and it's still too bad that Robinson hasn't made more of the immense potential he has of late.