All of the hype entering Week 4 of the 2016 Miami Dolphins season has centered on how former head coach Brian Flores and his blitz-happy defense are going to destroy the Dolphins' offense. With De'Von Achane out for the season, his job got a little easier.
The Vikings' defense is better than just good. Flores blitzes on more than 75% of the defensive snaps, and the Dolphins may see that number increase. The problem for the Vikings is that their offense is rather average. At best.
Miami's defense has been playing strong football the last couple of weeks. They have slowed down opposing running backs, are keeping the plays in front of them, and last week stopped the best offense in the AFC for nearly 60 minutes. If the Dolphins are going to win this week, it will be in spite of what Flores does on defense.
Miami Dolphins can beat the Vikings' offense; they just have to survive Brian Flores' defense
Let's start on the offensive side of things. The Vikings rank no higher than 16th in any specific offensive category through three weeks, and that is in red zone scoring. The rest of their ranking isn't exactly lighting up the league. Part of that problem is Kyler Murray. The Vikings QB was knocked out of Week 1 and missed all of Week 2. Last week, in his first full game of the season, he threw one TD and 1 interception.
- Points per game - 16th
- Total Yards per game - 32nd
- Passing yards per game - 32nd
- Rushing yards per game - 16th
- 3rd-down conversions - 32nd
If we look at these numbers, the one area the Dolphins have proven to be good at is against the run. Miami is ranked 12th in yards per game, but they have only allowed one 100-yard rusher. Ashton Jeanty ran for 102 yards in Week 1.
The Vikings' offense is beatable. Getting pressure on Murray, who is inconsistent, is the key. His greatest strength is his ability to avoid pressure and make plays with his legs, something that has crippled the Dolphins this season. QBs out of the pocket have been a nightmare for the Dolphins' defense. In addition, the Vikings will be without Justin Jefferson, their top WR.
Now let's head to that defense that Brian Flores is salivating over. On Wednesday night's The Fish Tank Podcast, O.J. McDuffie said that both Flores and Andrew Van Ginkel are going to go all out to beat the Dolphins. A loud, booming message to owner Stephen Ross. He also mentioned Flores' previous problems with Austin Jackson. McDuffie expects Jackson to have a busy night as Flores tests him on every snap.
The Vikings know the Dolphins don't have the same caliber of running game without De'Von Achane, but that's an opportunity for Bobby Slowik to dig deep into his playbook. Miami has to have pre-snap discipline and instead take advantage of the eager Vikings defenders to force them into pre-snap problems.
If the Dolphins are going to beat Flores' defense, Malik Willis has to do better with his quick reads. He will not have the same level of time in Week 4. That's not a problem if he can successfully identify and hit the hot routes; the problem is knowing where the blitz is coming from.
The Vikings may seem daunting with their 3-0 record, but who have they beaten? The Packers, Bears, and Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are 0-3; the Packers' only win of the year was against the Jets. Their only real challenge was the Bears in Week 2. They won 9-3.
Is this week a winnable game for the Dolphins? It isn't going to be easy, but if the Dolphins' offense can find a way to control the clock and the defense can force Murray into making mistakes, they may walk out of this with their first win.
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