Miami Dolphins fans don't expect much in 2026. It will be an exciting year to watch the team play, however. Without expectations, watching the players evolve over the course of the year can be just as entertaining.
In the history of the Dolphins franchise, Miami has only won fewer than 4 games three times. Their first season as an expansion team (3), the year before Don Shula was hired, and Cam Cameron's record-setting one-win season in 2007. Will 2026 become the 4th?
Sadly, as Dolphins fans know, Miami will do enough to stay out of the prized number one draft spot, but not enough to make it appear they were actually making the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins expected to win no more than four games, but that's too low
Betting sites have the Dolphins entering the season with an over/under win total of 4.5. (Why can't they just drop the .5?) That number also represents the lowest win total of any team in the NFL. The Cardinals are also projected to win 4.5 games.
In the last decade, no team has held the first overall pick (without a trade) while having won more than three games in the previous season. That isn't likely to change in 2026, but will the Dolphins win more than those three? We take a look to find out.
AFC East Opponents
Buffalo Bills - The Dolphins are not going to be favored to win either of their games against the Bills, regardless of when the games are played. That makes sense. As much as the two teams play each other well, Miami doesn't have the roster in place to challenge them.
- Prediction - Swept by the Bills
New England Patriots - The Patriots are defending AFC champions, and despite the expected regression from 14-3 last year, they should have no problems knocking the Dolphins out both times they play them.
- Prediction - Swept by the Patriots
New York Jets - The Jets have the talent on the roster to be good, but the quarterback remains a major uncertainty. Geno Smith is a Jekyll and Hyde-type QB, so you can't expect them to beat good teams, and you can't expect them to beat bad teams either. For Miami, it's a chance to notch at least one victory.
- Prediction - series split
Home opponents - 5 out of division games
Chicago Bears - The Bears are a playoff team, and they got better over the offseason. It's hard to imagine them walking into Hard Rock Stadium and taking a beating by a young team full of one-year contracts and a lot of questions.
- Prediction - Bears win
L.A. Chargers - Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert, and Mike McDaniel's return will be too much for Miami to overcome. On the other hand, McDaniel has one of the personalities that could work against him in a game that he will likely want to make a statement in. It's still hard to predict an upset.
- Prediction - Chargers win
Detroit Lions - Dan Campbell returns to South Florida without the need or desire for the same revenge that McDaniel might be looking for. Campbell is just bringing his brand of in-your-face physical football that Jeff Hafley and Jon-Eric Sullivan know all too well. The Lions are what the Dolphins want to become, and the new players will get a firsthand look at what that is.
- Prediction - Lions win
Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow is at a crossroads in his career. The can't-miss first-round pick hasn't been anything but injured since his Super Bowl appearance. It's hard to know if he will be available to play when the two teams meet. If he isn't, the Dolphins have a shot, but even with Burrow, Miami can stay close. The Bengals simply underachieve, and that benefits teams like Miami. While no means a lock, this game could provide the Dolphins with an unexpected win.
- Prediction - Dolphins win
Kansas City Chiefs - Will Patrick Mahomes be on the field when the Chiefs begin their season? That isn't known just yet, but his progress is pointing to yes. The Chiefs may not have the roster to compete with the Broncos this year, but they do have the roster to beat the Dolphins.
- Prediction - Chiefs win
Away Opponents - Miami will play one extra road game in 2026
Denver Broncos - If McDaniel were still coaching and the roster was gutted like it was this offseason, Sean Payton would probably put more than 70 points on Miami. He still might and has the roster to do it.
- Prediction - Broncos win
Green Bay Packers - Playing in Green Bay is fitting considering the Dolphins' Green Bay makeover. The return of Malik Willis, Jeff Hafley, and Jon-Eric Sullivan will highlight the week leading up to the game, but any hope of a win will end once the game starts.
- Prediction - Packers win
Las Vegas Raiders - The Raiders have a new QB, but will it be Fernando Mendoza or Kirk Cousins behind center when the Dolphins play them? Honestly, I'm not sure it matters. Miami may have some roster problems, but the Raiders are worse and far more inconsistent.
- Prediction - Dolphins win
Indianapolis Colts - Daniel Jones started his first season with Indianapolis like he was the franchise QB he was drafted by the Giants to be. Then the wheels started to loosen, and he got hurt. Before that, he managed to run roughshod over the Dolphins early in 2025. Miami might match up better than some think with this game, and if they can take away the Colts' running game, they might be able to pull off a win.
- Prediction - Dolphins win
Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings have quarterback issues of their own, but they have a very good defense. Miami's own defense may be good enough to keep the Vikings from running away with the game, but can their offense produce points against the Brian Flores-led defense? This game might be close enough for the Dolphins to win late, but only slightly.
- Prediction - Vikings win
San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers' 2025 season ended in round two of the playoffs last year. They play in the toughest division in the league (NFC West) and are expected to challenge in the division again this season. The Dolphins are not going to put up much of a fight after traveling across the country.
- Prediction - 49ers win
Dolphins 2026 record prediction
We have the Dolphins coming in under the 4.5 predictive total. With wins against the Jets, Bengals, Raiders, and a potential steal against the Colts, the Dolphins would be looking at a 4-13 record and a top-5 draft pick in 2027, where they will need to decide if the quarterback position is the most important selection they have to make early.
It's hard to look at the Dolphins' schedule, the second toughest in the league, and find possible victories. The team is too much of an unknown at this point to be more confident.
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