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Dolphins fans shouldn’t buy into draft visits if history holds

Fans may have no clue what is coming when draft night arrives.
Miami Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan
Miami Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

How do the Miami Dolphins keep their draft plans secret when the draft is only 13 days away? You don't talk about them. It's that simple. The Miami Dolphins are hosting 30-visits, which have many fans wondering whether these are the players they are targeting. History suggests, however, that they are the players they are not sure of.

In the NFL, everything is broken down into tiny pieces and then slid under the microscope. Did so-and-so general manager have a dinner date with an old high-school sweetheart who taught prospect-X in said school? Now there is a connection.

30-visits draw a lot of NFL attention. With that comes media speculation, but fans hoping for a clue as to what they may do based on those visits may want to reconsider. A new list shows how teams have used those 30-visits in round one.

Miami Dolphins share similar beliefs in using 30-visits to draft prospects

Over the last 11 drafts, Kent Weyrauch researched the number of confirmed 30-visits for each team and then broke down how many of those players were drafted by the team that visited with them.

By looking at this chart, we can see how much wasted time the Dolphins have had in the last 11 drafts. Granted, Chris Grier's attention to players seemed to wane in the hours during the draft. It's the only way Dolphins fans can explain Noah Igbinoghene and Charles Harris being selected in round one.

The Dolphins have had 12 first-round draft picks in this window, but only one time did they draft a player who had visited on one of the NFL's regulated tours. That player, according to the chart, would have been Louisville receiver De'Vante Parker.

O.k., it's time to move on, we know. Grier and company are no longer calling the shots; the former Packers personnel guy is. Jon-Eric Sullivan has learned a lot from his time with the Packers, and it's likely his approach is similar to theirs.

Green Bay also had 12 selections in that time period, but they only drafted three first-round picks who had visited on a 30-visit.

30-visits do not equal draft interest. Sure, the Dolphins have failed most of the last 11 years, and the Packers have been at least competitive, but the Browns drafted 8 players in the first round who came in on 30-visits. The Giants have drafted 10 of their 15 first-rounders whom they visited with.

It doesn't equal success, but it may provide a modicum of clarity for players that might be on the bubble as a first-round prospect. On the other hand, the value may tend to be more useful for players drafted outside of the first round. Those are the guys who are not as clearly gifted or well-known, making a meeting with them far more important.

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