The Jekyll-and-Hyde Miami Dolphins are in full swing as they've now won three in a row and four of five after starting the season 1-6. However, a familiar foe visits the Dolphins, and no, I'm not talking about their division rival and opponent this week, the New York Jets.
It's the month of December. And with it, particularly in more northern parts of the country, the cold weather swings in. Historically, the Dolphins have not fared well in cold-weather games, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has not been able to change that.
Dolphins will need to finally win in cold weather to keep their season alive
The Dolphins' historical falls in December are enough to warrant telling Rome to hold its beer. The month has been a sort of kryptonite for the organization for years now and has much to do with the team's 25-year drought without a playoff win.
By now, most football fans know of the famous "Leon Lett game" on Thanksgiving against Dallas. Yet, many of them may not know that Miami didn't win a single game that year, the rest of the way. The same holds for the Dolphins after executing the Miami Miracle in 2018 against the New England Patriots. The only real miracle turned out to be that it was a win in December.
Then, there are the blunders in 2022 and 2023, when the Dolphins got off to 8-3 and 9-3 starts, respectively, only to back into the playoffs and out of the postseason in the Wild Card round. Other countless seasons have watched Miami fall short when it matters most.
The major hurdle that the Dolphins have not successfully leaped over in that stretch is going on the road and winning in cold-weather games. Unfortunately, Tagovailoa has not been able to turn that narrative around since becoming the starting quarterback.
Projected 38 degrees at kickoff for Dolphins at Jets Sunday
— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) December 2, 2025
Tua Tagovailoa 0-7 in career when temp 46 degrees or colder at kickoff; 1-8 when 50 degrees or colder
Tua has won twice at Jets in late November and he’s 6-0 vs. Jets in career (Miami 7-0 vs. Jets in games Tua appears)
As the Palm Beach Post's Joe Schad notes, the expected kickoff temperature at MetLife Stadium on Sunday will be 38 degrees. For his career, Tua is 0-7 in games when it's 46 degrees or colder and just 1-8 when it's 50 or below. That one win did come against the Jets, but with the disastrous Tim Boyle as New York's starting QB.
Tagovailoa has been perfect in games played vs. the Jets for his career, but he's having his worst season yet in 2025. He's gone three straight games without throwing for over 200 yards and has just two passing touchdowns in his last four (both against Buffalo). Factor in that the Jets have been playing well as of late, and this could be a disaster that some might not see coming.
New York started the season 0-7 but has since won three of its last five games. The offense has revolutionized somewhat under Tyrod Taylor, and this will be a tough out for a Miami squad that has no room for error. Even if they win out, there's a strong possibility the Dolphins will be out of the postseason.
Tua and the Dolphins have been in this situation before -- and it didn't end well. Winning seven straight after losing seven straight in 2021, Tagovailoa and Miami needed to win in Tennessee over the No. 1-seeded Titans to keep their playoff chances alive. If they had just fallen short, they may have deserved a pass. But in their 34-3 loss, the Dolphins didn't even look like they belonged on the same field as the Titans.
In that game, Tua completed just 18 of 38 passes. It was his worst outing among cold-weather games in terms of completion percentage, and among the losses, he's thrown just nine total touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions.
In Tagovailoa's cold-weather games, the average margin of defeat for Miami has been 18.3 points per game, proving the team was ill-prepared and that Tua was not up to the task. I wouldn't expect the Jets to go out and win by three scores, but this game could be a marking point for the Dolphins franchise if it comes anywhere near it or if New York seemingly controls the game.
Miami has been fortunate in the last two games, but the Jets have been playing much better than anything the Commanders or Saints have shown recently. Thus, Tua will need to be better than he's been and overcome the cold. If not, we could see Quinn Ewers beginning to get starter reps as early as next week.