Winning comes with a cost.
The Miami Dolphins have resurrected their season over the last month and a half, winning five of their last six games. The streak has given them much-needed momentum going into the offseason, but it’s dropped them out of the top five of the 2026 NFL Draft. That means that they’ve lost their chance at drafting one of the top quarterbacks in the upcoming class.
Indiana prospect Fernando Mendoza looks like the perfect Tua Tagovailoa replacement, but he’s playing his way into the top few picks. As much as he would be a great fit in Miami, the Dolphins likely won’t have a chance to draft him.
Dolphins are losing their chance to draft Fernando Mendoza
The 2026 crop of quarterback prospects has been underwhelming, for the most part. Projected stars like Arch Manning and Drew Allar have fallen out of consideration, leaving limited options for QB-needy teams. At this point, it looks like Mendoza may be the only surefire first-round pick at the position.
After his performance against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, the Dolphins’ chances of drafting the young quarterback are quickly disappearing.
A final score of 13-10 doesn’t usually indicate a dominant passing performance. Mendoza’s stats from the game don’t jump off the stat sheet. He threw for 222 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. He didn’t light it up on the ground either, totaling -3 rushing yards.
But there’s a reason why NFL scouts watch the games. Mendoza’s unremarkable statistical performance was actually one of his most impressive outings of the year. He made multiple big throws throughout the game, targeting receivers in all areas of the field. Early in the game, he hit a deep pass over the middle with perfect placement, showcasing his impressive arm talent. Later, he threw a back-shoulder fade to Elijah Sarratt, giving the Hoosiers the lead in the third quarter.
Mendoza is a prototypical NFL quarterback, with the size, arm, and processing ability to succeed in almost any offensive system. All of those traits were on full display against Ohio State.
In the biggest game of his young career, Mendoza stepped up to the plate. For many NFL scouts, that performance will be enough to solidify him as the top quarterback in the upcoming draft class. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, Mendoza’s rise puts him out of their reach. If they want to replace Tagovailoa next offseason, they’ll have to look elsewhere.