The Miami Dolphins have won five of six games to stay relevant in the AFC playoff picture, but they now face one of their toughest tests of the season in Week 15.
Miami will travel north to face the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football this week, and they will face sub-freezing temperatures for the first time this season. They managed to finally win a game with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback in cold weather in Week 14 against the Jets, but it was still a relatively comfortable 41 degrees at kickoff.
In Pittsburgh, the temperature could very well be in the teens by the start of the game. In past years, that would likely have been a death sentence for Miami's chances of winning. With head coach Mike McDaniel's renewed commitment to the run game, however, the potential for an upset has never been higher.
Miami Dolphins' resurgent rushing attack can even the odds against the Steelers Monday night
The Dolphins enter their game against the Steelers ranking eighth in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 126.5, 20 yards more than their 2024 output. That is a strong mark for certain, but their last three games paint an even prettier picture for McDaniel and the offense. They are averaging 190.7 yards per game over that stretch, including a season-high 239 yards against the Jets.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has struggled mightily to defend the run over that same time frame. They have allowed 188.3 yards per game over the past three contests, including 249 against the Bills and 217 against the Ravens.
Assuming star running back De'Von Achane is ready to go after getting banged up last week, Miami may be able to ride its three-headed backfield to a win against a struggling Steelers defense. It will likely take more from Tagovailoa than they got against New York, but the Steelers' secondary isn't anything to write home about either.
Read More: Dolphins legends fans would love to see pull a Philip Rivers and unretire in 2026
A few timely plays in the passing game and a consistent running game are all the Dolphins need to give themselves a real chance at victory, especially if Steelers' star T.J. Watt misses the game with his recent lung issue. With the defense also surging as of late, trying to grind out a low-scoring slug fest is their best strategy.
If there is one thing that could be a major issue, however, it's turnovers.
With Tua at QB, ill-advised passes are always a potential issue. The Steelers are an opportunistic defense at their core, and not just against the pass. No team has been better at forcing and recovering fumbles than Pittsburgh. They lead the NFL with 12 recovered fumbles.
Ball security must be at a premium, even if Miami is one of the best at it in the league with just four lost fumbles. If they can do that and keep Pittsburgh's offense in check, they can escape the Steel City with a season-saving win.