The Miami Dolphins are chasing the Denver Broncos for the final spot in the AFC playoff picture, but Week 15 offers an odd predicament for fans hoping for the Dolphins to move a spot forward.
In most cases, the list of teams Miami fans need to root for is cut and dry, but this week, it isn't so clear given the status of each team, conference tie-breakers, and, more importantly, each team's remaining schedule.
The matchup between the Broncos and Indianapolis Colts is the most important contest for Dolphins fans to keep an eye on this week, but there are a few other Week 15 games to pay attention to as well.
In the current AFC playoff picture, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have already clinched spots.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, at 10-3, can clinch a playoff berth on Sunday if Miami loses to the Houston Texans or the Colts lose to the Broncos. The Texans can clinch a spot in the postseason if they beat the Dolphins and the Indianapolis loses to Denver.
Houston and Pittsburgh are the only two AFC teams that clinch a playoff berth in Week 15, but a Dolphins win over the Texans will keep both of them waiting another week.
Heading into Sunday, seeds No. 5, No. 6, and No. 7 in the AFC are currently held by the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, and Broncos, with the Colts at No. 8 and the Dolphins at No. 9.
The Ravens are playing a 2-11 New York Giants team this weekend, so it would be insanity if the Giants upset them on Sunday.
The Chargers are hosting the 7-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, and that could be a tough game for Los Angeles. A loss would certainly help Miami, as the Chargers' record would drop to 8-6. The Dolphins, of course, have to win, and then they would only be one game behind Los Angeles if that were to happen.
Battle between the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts is the big game for Miami Dolphins fans to watch in Week 15
The Colts and Dolphins are both 6-7 heading into Sunday, but Indianapolis owns the head-to-head tie-breaker.
If the Colts lose to the Broncos this weekend, Miami would move a game ahead of Indianapolis but would remain two games behind Denver with three games left in the regular season.
If the Colts win, the Broncos' lead would be cut to one, but then Indianapolis would still be in a better position over the Dolphins and have an easier remaining schedule.
This is where the conundrum comes into play. The Colts' final three opponents this season are the Tennessee Titans, Giants, and Jacksonville Jaguars. Two of those games are in Indianapolis, and the Colts are likely going to be favored in all three.
On the other hand, Denver will end its regular season facing the Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Chiefs. The Broncos losing at least two of those three games is possible.
One possibility that would eliminate a potential Indianapolis head-to-head tiebreaker with Miami is if the Colts, Broncos, and Dolphins all finish the regular season with the same record.
If Indianapolis beats Denver on Sunday, the Colts would get in the playoffs over both the Dolphins and Broncos if all three teams finish the 2024 campaign with the same record. But if Indianapolis loses this weekend, then tie-breaker scenarios will likely be needed.
This weekend, it's a toss-up, but Miami's best chance of making the playoffs this season might be for the Colts to lose to Denver.