The win projections for all 32 NFL teams for the 2026 season are out, and it's not looking good for the Miami Dolphins. Early projections have the Dolphins' win total at just 4.5 games, tied for worst in the league with the Arizona Cardinals.
Some fans may deem the low number to be harsh and quick to smash the over, but the Dolphins' massive cuts earlier this week were a sign of things to come. And although the previous regime tried everything in its power to prevent it, a much-needed rebuild is coming for Miami in 2026.
This win total may go up for Miami once free agency kicks off, and depending on how they do in the 2026 NFL Draft. But I wouldn't count on it going up much, and it should be a clear sign that the upcoming season will be a long one for Dolphins fans.
Miami Dolphins tied for lowest-projected win total in 2026
It could be perplexing to some as to why the Dolphins are rated so low going into the 2026 season. After all, they've spent the better part of this century in the mediocre range and are near a guarantee to produce at least seven wins each year, even in terrible seasons.
But the Dolphins this year are cleaning house and doing it the right way. Their approach is that some short-term pain will hopefully net them some long-term success—something this organization hasn't been able to produce in a very long time.
The Dolphins' brass even showed its hand on some level by giving new head coach Jeff Hafley a five-year contract, when the standard is typically four. Hafley won't necessarily get a pass for the 2026 season, but the front office expects there to be some growing pains early on and is sprinkling that into his deal.
Mix in where Miami sits as an organization currently and their 2026 opponents, and it makes sense as to why Vegas believes the Dolphins will be one of the first teams on the clock in 2027. Not counting their standard AFC East opponents, the Dolphins have one of the toughest schedules this upcoming season.
Set to play the AFC West and NFC North divisions, Miami will host the Chiefs, Chargers, Bears, and Lions in 2026, while playing the Raiders, Vikings, Packers, and Broncos away from Hard Rock Stadium. In addition to that, they'll also play the Bengals at home, plus the Colts and 49ers on the road. If I'm being honest, I see three wins at the moment, which includes two wins against the Jets that I'm not overly confident about.
Dolphins need a bottom-out season
It's never fun to watch your team lose, and it's tough to get excited about the upcoming season when they're expected to be the worst in the league. But the Dolphins have needed a rebuilding season like we expect to see for quite some time. The writing was on the wall already after the 2023 season.
Miami has stayed in a whirlpool of mediocrity for the better part of two decades, and it's a large part of why they haven't won a playoff game in over 25 years. Even when it was apparent that they weren't a very good team, management and the coaching staff focused on winning a few games in hopes of saving their jobs rather than what was best for the organization. That's why they're again picking outside of the top 10 this year.
The Dolphins have been good enough to beat up on the bad teams, but not good enough to compete with the contenders. By shedding bad contracts and bringing in young talent to develop around a few veterans, this front office is doing what's necessary to turn things around.
As previously mentioned, free agency and the draft could boost the projections for Miami's win total. In fact, if the Dolphins do sign quarterback Malik Willis this offseason, it wouldn't surprise me if their projection went up as much as two full games.
But Dolphins fans shouldn't expect the spending spree we grew accustomed to seeing under Chris Grier. On the contrary, I think they may do next to nothing other than sign a bunch of veterans to one-year deals and extend those already in-house who they believe will be here for the long haul.
And if it is a poor season for the Dolphins as Vegas projects, that actually sets them up nicely for 2027 and beyond. The 2027 NFL Draft is expected to be loaded with top-level talent, including a myriad of potential franchise quarterbacks. If the Dolphins can focus on building the trenches in the meantime and wait to grab their signal-caller next April, they could swiftly turn things around and end this playoff-win drought in just a few years.