Following Sunday's third-quarter meltdown against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Miami Dolphins currently hold the No. 10 spot in the 2026 NFL Draft with a 6-9 record. As it stands, the Dolphins can get as high as No. 7 when the season concludes with two games to go.
And although it comes naturally to root for our favorite teams, winning can only hurt Miami in these final two games. Therefore, the Dolphins need to lose against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New England Patriots to finish it out and at least maintain their pace for a top-10 selection.
Meanwhile, for Miami to climb any higher in the official draft order, they'll need some help from their NFL counterparts. Thankfully, on paper, Christmas Weekend is shaping up to be a gift for the Dolphins.
Miami Dolphins' draft rooting guide for Week 17
As mentioned, the Dolphins could be picking as high as seventh overall next April. The teams currently above them at 7 through 9 are the Washington Commanders (4-11 record), the New Orleans Saints (5-10), and the Bengals (5-10), respectively.
The Dolphins beat the Commanders earlier in the year and can only do as well as tie them if they lose out and Washington wins out. However, head-to-head records are not the primary tiebreaker to determine draft positioning. Strength of schedule (opponents' current records) is, and as it stands, the Dolphins' SOS (.492) is weaker than the Commanders' (.500).
Miami also beat New Orleans (.496 SOS) this season, but could jump ahead of them as well in a similar dynamic. The Bengals are the only team to have beaten the Dolphins of those discussed, but with the highest strength of schedule of the bunch (.516), Cincinnati is likely to lose any tiebreaker scenarios.
The good news for Miami is that they have a good shot of gaining ground on all three this week if everything goes right. First, as mentioned, the Dolphins must lose to the Buccaneers at home on Sunday. Tampa Bay has struggled down the stretch, but the Bucs still have a lot to play for in terms of winning the NFC South, with just a game between them and the Carolina Panthers.
Then, Washington kicks things off on Christmas Day with a home matchup vs. the Dallas Cowboys. The Commanders recently shut down quarterback Jayden Daniels for the season, but with the Cowboys already eliminated from postseason contention, this one is all about bragging rights. With it being a divisional game at home, Washington has a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset.
In Sunday's games, both Cincinnati and New Orleans are favored in their respective matchups. The Bengals will play host to the Arizona Cardinals, and the Saints will travel to take on the Tennessee Titans. Both the Cardinals and Titans currently sit with 3-12 records and remain in play for the No. 1 overall selection.
Miami has a great opportunity to gain ground on all three this week with a loss and victories by Washington, New Orleans, and Cincinnati. Should that all come to fruition, this time next week the Dolphins would hold the eighth pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, assuming the strength of schedules for each team stays relatively the same.
Teams behind the Dolphins they need to worry about
Before the start of the season, no one would have projected that the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens would miss the playoffs entirely. Yet, with two weeks to go, the Chiefs are already eliminated, and the Ravens are nearing that fate as well. And while it will already be weird watching Kansas City and Baltimore not picking in the 20s or 30s, Miami does not want either team picking ahead of them in 2026.
One has to assume that KC and Baltimore will bounce back next season into the contender status we're accustomed to seeing. However, they don't need the additional help of picking higher in the draft to get them there. With that said, neither is in a prime position to win this week.
The Chiefs were embarrassed last week by the Titans and are now down to their third-string QB. With the AFC's No. 1-seeded Denver Broncos coming to town, Kansas City (6-9, currently picking 12th) is in line to lose its fifth straight game. Meanwhile, after fumbling away an 11-point lead at home in the fourth quarter to the New England Patriots, the Ravens (7-8, 14th) must go on the road to Green Bay to take on the Packers in a Saturday night special.
Regarding other teams sitting behind Miami in the draft order at the moment, the Atlanta Falcons (6-9, 11th) will host the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. Ironically, the Rams hold the Falcons' first-round selection in 2026 and could benefit in draft position with an Atlanta win. But the Rams have bigger goals on their minds, and after losing a heartbreaker last week to the Seattle Seahawks, they'll be looking to make a statement.
Sitting in 13th position are the Cowboys (7-8), who take on the Commanders on Christmas Day, as referenced, while the Minnesota Vikings (15th, vs. Detroit Lions) and Buccaneers (at Miami) also roll into Week 17 with 7-8 records.
Nevertheless, I have a hard time believing the Dolphins will win either of their remaining games, and should keep those behind them right where they are. The Buccaneers have struggled, but their games have been close, and the NFL script has to come down to Tampa Bay and the Carolina Panthers in an all-or-nothing scenario for Week 18, doesn't it?
Plus, the Patriots will assuredly have something to play for in Week 18 against Miami, whether it's for the No. 1 seed or the division title or both. During the Dolphins' winning streak, there was a sense of optimism from some in the fan base that New England may not have anything to play for in Week 18 and potentially sit their starters should Miami make the miraculous comeback to put themselves in postseason contention.
That is not the case, however, and in truth, the Dolphins are better off for it.