Week 1 Preview/Predictions: Miami Vs. Washington

On Tuesday I broke down my opinion of the Washington Redskins position by position. Yesterday, the breakdown of the Miami Dolphins was posted. Today we look at them against one another.

Week 1:  Miami Dolphins Vs. Washington Redskins

When Miami has the ball:

Trent Green makes his Dolphins debut and must eliminate bad timing mistakes. Interceptions will be part of the Trent Green game, however, it is where and when those occur that will affect the game.  Green must show his veteran leadership on the field as he takes it with a team that is young and accustomed to losing on that side of the ball.

Chambers is going to line up as the split-end WR and Booker at the number 1 spot.  The objective is to create enough mismatch with Chambers in motion to keep the stout secondary of the Redskins from playing in the box.  Ted Ginn will move up to he number 2 slot.

The offensive line does not have to play lights out stellar to be effective.  The Redskin front 7 is not the best that the Phins will face.  The unit is good, but they are not great.  ILB London Fletcher is the guy who stands out on their front unit.  Fletcher plays a roll similar to that of Zach Thomas.  The front 7 will try and put pressure on Green by collapsing the front line and you can bet that they will try and run a few stunts to confuse new LT Vernon Carey and rookie C Samson Satele.

The Dolphins should be able to run on this unit for some positive yards, but they will have to continue to wear down the Redskins line.  The outside is the likely running lane early on as the two OLBs’ are weaker compared to Fletcher.  Forcing Fletcher to pursue early will wear him out as well, the secondary will have to move up and that could open a play action pass down the field.

The problem is going to be the long ball.  Trent Green really does not have the arm to get the ball down the field anymore over 25 yards.  He tends to loft it, which at times that sort of touch will work, but not against a secondary that can sit back and wait, and stay heel to heel with the Dolphins WRs.  As fast as Ted Ginn is, he will not be burning the sidelines and leaving guys like Shaun Springs and Sean Taylor behind him.  Not without a perfectly executed play action pass.

In the middle of the field the Dolphins will try and get Chambers lined up in mismatched coverage, but the problem here is going to be the safety play of Laron Landry and Carlos Rogers.  The Dolphins starting receivers in Booker and Ginn do not scare anyone yet, the offense is still vanilla and still more of a finesse unit.  Chambers may find it hard to get the  linebacker coverage that he is seeking.  With the speed of the two Redskin corners, the Skins may not need to roll up coverage on both WRs’, leaving one of the safeties free to shadow Chambers.

If the Dolphins are going to have success on offense, the TE may be the most valuable player in the receiving game.  Over the middle, again, sits Fletcher, but on the outside there is going to be some room.  The Dolphins will have to execute passes to the flats for YACs (yards after catch), and keep themselves in 3rd and short.  3rd and longs will not likely gain much.

Overall – the Washington defense is the opposite of the Phins defense.  Where Miami is front loaded, the Redskins are back loaded.  Trent Green and company need to pound out the ball and keep at it until the Redskin front 7 begin to breakdown, and then run it some more.  Success is possible, but the execution will need to be close to perfect.  Laron Landry and Carlos Rogers will be trying to ball hawk everything over the middle…and they may have a few opportunities.

Miami needs to control the progression of the game from the start if they want to have success.

Washington offense vs. Miami defense:

As does the Dolphins, the Redskins face a daunting task as well, only for them it is up front and not down the field, the Miami Dolphins have one of the best front 7 defenses in the league.

The Skins have a solid offensive line, but with the late addition of Pete Kendall, there could be a few blocking scheme breakdowns, to Kendalls’ credit, he is familiar with the Dolphins.  The Skins will try and move the ball on the ground early and establish Clinton Portis, to do that, they will have to confuse the Dolphins defense whose speed can contain the outside and clog the middle with the bulk of Traylor and Holliday.

For the Dolphins they will try and force the Skins into an aerial attack.  Even though there are some questions with the Miami secondary, a passing attack by the Skins’ could turn to trouble quickly with the rush of the Dolphins.  Young QB Jason Campbell will have to eyes in the back of his head as he faces disguised blitzes from Jason Taylor, Matt Roth, Joey Porter, Yeremiah Bell, and anyone else that Dom Capers feels like throwing at him.  Unfortunately for the Redskins, play action pass will not help them as much as it will Miami.  The front 7 is just too quick.  If they read run, they are still moving up field, where play action will lead to Campbell standing in a closing pocket.

Like with the Dolphins, the Skins offensive success will come with the protection given by their Oline.  If Campbell can get time, then the Skins should be able to poke and prod the Dolphins secondary.  Will Allen will likely be the 1 on 1 CB with Santana Moss while Travis Daniels gets Antwan Randle-El.  Bell and Reynaldo Hill will roll up coverage where needed and if the Skins find time to pass or have running success, Bell will effectively be taken out of the blitz scheme.  The running game especially could hurt the Safeties production in terms of the Skin passing game.

At TE the Skins use Chris Cooley a rapidly developing star.  He can block and he can catch.  Although he is not a Tony Gonzalez of old or an Antonio Gates, he is nothing short of productive.  Cooley will try and find the hole in the Miami front and try and set up just behind the LBs’.  Joey Porter is supposed to be really good in pass coverage and we will likely see if that is the case.  Roth and Taylor must when given the opportunity, not allow Cooley off the line without creating some timing changes or at the very least redirection of his route by line chucks.  Zach Thomas will be his usual brilliant self in the running game, but if Cooley can get behind him or the Skins can get Thomas to cover, it could be a long day for Thomas.  Breaking the timing of the Campbell to Cooley hook-up could allow for a couple of turnovers or the opportunity at some degree.

Channing Crowder is the guy who will face the immediate charge of the Skins offense.  Look for the Skins to test Crowder often and early.  In the flats, they will try and get the ball into Portis’ hands through the air while trying to get Crowder to follow Cooley.  Crowder will have to be on top of his game as this is a match-up that many teams will try and exploit all year long…until Crowder can show that the weaker side is that of Joey Porters’.

Overall – Like the Phins, the Redskins will be at the mercy of their protection schemes and how well they execute them.  For the Dolphins, it is a simple matter of disruption.  Get into the face of Campbell and the Skins will not likely make much noise, allow them to run the ball, and Campbell will have time find an open receiver.

Special Teams and Coaches – On special teams there really is nothing special on the Dolphins side of the ball.  The unit is consistent in terms of breaking down and giving up the long play at the wrong times.  At the same time, the return game is nothing yet.  Ginn will have the opportunity to prove that he was at least worth mentioning in the 9 overall slot, gone is Wes Welker who gave the Phins solid field position at the right times.  Ginn will have to do that now.  For the Skins it will be Randle-El returning and the Dolphins need to maintain their angles of pursuit and not cheat the gaps in order to break the wedge front and take him down.

Perhaps the biggest surprise for the Phins this year was the loss of their Punter, D. Jones.  This year those duties belong to the reincarnate of Reggie Roby, Brandon Fields.  Fields taken in the mid 7th round has a booming leg with great hang-time.  This is the kids first game and he must avoid the rookie nerves that could lead to breakdowns in his mindset.  At his best, Fields could pin the Skins, deep in their own territory…effectively eliminating any return game at all.

Kickers – Feely joins Miami after the trade of Olindo Mare who is not looking very good in his new dome home.  Feely is accurate and has a decent leg on field goals, but he is not going to put the ball out of the end-zone on kick-offs which will allow the KR game of the Skins to try and exploit a weak ST unit for the Phins.

Coaches – The hall of famer vs. the rookie.  Joe Gibbs enters his 15th season and he is nothing like he used to be.  Since his return to the sideline, Gibbs has not been able to resurrect the success he had in his first stint as the Washington HC.  Perhaps the best move this year was bringing in former Chiefs offensive coordinator Al Saunders.  Saunders has been around a long time and could be effective in getting the Skins O to work together the way they should.

Saunders will also be able to supply the DC, Gregg Williams, with insight into Trent Green as well.

Offensively the Skins have it over the Dolphins…at least until HC/OC Cam Cameron can prove in real games that he knows what he is doing.  Cameron is rather unorthodox in his approach from training, practice, to the way he calls his game.  Should Cameron get confused or feel as though he his overwhelmed, he needs to be able to talk with Capers about it.  Capers is the best coach Miami has right now until Cameron can prove he is able to handle both the HC and OC positions.

In terms of his offense, Cameron must call a solid game that is not too vanilla and will score points.  A ball control soft approach will not help the Dolphins.  The Dolphins must try and get the Skins to play from behind in order to allow the defensive MVP and his associates on defense to take control of the game…and the out come.  Cameron has Miami fans divided on whether he will be successful or just another in a growing list of failures….yes Dave W., 10-6 with no playoffs is still a failed season…sorry but it is true.

Predictions:

Originally when I did my pre-season predictions, I had Miami winning this game, after seeing 4 games on the pre-season schedule produce only subtle hints of improvement I am not so sure.

The Skins will have it rough on offense as will the Dolphins.  This game is going to be won on the defensive side of the ball.  What offense makes the first, most, and last mistake.  This is going to be a slow moving, at times dull, week 1 game.  But it is week 1, regular season and hopes are always high.  As ugly as this game could get, I still think that the Dolphins can win this game, in fact, I think they should.

Miami 17 – Washington 13