Miami Dolphins’ Lamar Miller Is Elite

When NFL experts are asked of who are the elite running backs in the league few, if any, would place Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller in that company.

However, the analytic numbers may say something different.

Stat-wise, Miller had a breakout season in 2014. He rushed for 1,099 yards on 216 attempts and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. That average was good for a three-way tie for fifth in the league.

When combining rushing and receiving yardage, Miller racked up 1,341 yards on 254 touches averaging out to 5.41 yards every time Miller got his hands on the football which was good enough to place him higher than some of the league’s elite rushers.

When compared to the other 1,000 yard backs, only Le’Veon Bell, Justin Forsett, Eddie Lacy, and Jamaal Charles averaged more yards per touch than Miller. However, in the same pool of players Charles and Hill were the only two to have less touches than Miller.

Getting Miller the football seemed to be a problem last season for head coach Joe Philbin. Miller had 15 or fewer rushing attempts in 12 games. He only had 20 or more touches in two games all season, maxing out at 24 in the Week 16 victory over Minnesota.

That is a crying shame because delving deeper into the stats reveals Miller’s true worth. Miller was third in the league amongst rushers in “Win Probability Added”. WPA measures the impact that the play has on the outcome of the game. This means, proportion-wise, plays that directly involve Miller increase the odds that the Dolphins will win the game. Only Demarco Murray and Bell had a higher WPA.

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Miller was seventh among 1,000 yard rushers in “Expected Points Added”, which is the impact of the player on the score of the game. He was a positive 8.9 while elite backs like Lesean McCoy and Eddie Lacy had negative EPA. But Miller was nowhere near as productive as Bell or Marshawn Lynch.

With running backs like Bell, Murray, and Lynch racking up yards and wearing down defenses, Miller has one stat that bests them all. Success rate.

Miller led all running backs with over 100 rushes and 30 receptions in plays that would be considered successful and result in positive EPA. He was the only back in 2014 with a success rate over 50% among those rushers.

Miller was one of the most successful running backs in the 2014 season. He generated positive plays slightly over half of the time he touched the football and improved the Dolphins chances of winning simply by being directly involved in the play. For this upcoming season, Philbin should work on getting him the ball more often and continue that success.

Don’t be scared off by his 5’10 stature. Miller is only two inches shorter and seven pounds heavier than last season’s leading rusher Demarco Murray. So the perception that Miller is too small or light to be an every down back may just be that: a perception.

Based on his 2014 advanced stats, a more involved Lamar Miller will mean more wins and more successful plays. And if that’s the case, the Dolphins may just find that they have an elite game breaking rusher in the back field. At least, that’s what the analytics say.