Look back on the draft; 2016 Season Prediction

With the NFL draft over and teams heading into the off-season programs, time will be ticking slowly. Looking back on the draft and predicting the up coming season is no easy task because there are no crystal balls.

While many on this staff gave grades to the draft that is now two weeks old a different look might be more appealing to those fans that don’t care for grades.

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Final thoughts on the draft:

So I spent the past weekend in my old college town, but this time as a middle-aged man with a wife (Happy Mother’s Day!) and a toddler in tow, and not as a 21- year old testosterone- and beer-fueled man-child.  While walking across the campus, I alternately smiled at some fun memories, and cringed at remembrances of other, shall we say, less than noble activities in which a younger Carlton engaged… (allegedly).

During my walk, I thought about the draft, and the enormous amount of effort that the National Football League teams and their talent acquisition groups put forth to find the next Jerry Rice or the next Tom Brady.  I thought about the countless hours spent by Todd McShay and Mel Kiper in explaining the difference between a 4.38 and a 4.45 in the forty yard dash, and how the 4.45 guy is too slow to be a number #1 receiver, all the while discounting that Michael Irvin ran a 4.52, and Rice a 4.59, all the way to the Hall of Fame.  I thought about a professor who told me that “the A students will teach, and the B students will work for the C students”.

In any event, I decided that I wouldn’t put a grade on the Dolphins draft picks.  The results of the draft will be known in a few years, when the players either do well or they don’t.  Grading the picks now is like grading a test before the student has taken it.  And I would guess that the majority of successes or failures of those players will be related to circumstances outside of their direct control, things like scheme fit, injuries, opportunities, off-the-field issues, maturity, and the like.  Because when you get down to it, the draft is about 32 teams picking 7 players each, for a total of 224 players being selected from a pool of approximately 16,000 draft-eligible, Division I football players.  So you’re talking about the top 2% of the college football players.  A player of that caliber who busts in the pro’s is not busting because he doesn’t know how to play football.

I will say however, that I really like the picks of Laremy Tunsil, and Jakeem Grant.  If Grant is able to make an impact on kick and punt returns, that should be very helpful to the offense.  And obviously, Tunsil is going to be counted on to help keep Ryan Tannehill upright, healthy and productive.

2016 Season prediction:

I’ve been looking at the 2016 season schedule for a few weeks now, and am now ready to state that the Dolphins could be looking at a very, very successful season.  One main reason is that the Dolphins will play five home games between September 25th and November 6th, all at 1P.M.  We are talking hot, humid games… we are talking about Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and the New York Jets coming from colder climates and not knowing what to do with all that sweat pouring off their heads.  The fifth opponent is Tennessee, which is from the south, but was 2-6 on the road last year, and was clobbered by Miami 38-10 when they met in 2015.  I am putting checkmarks next to all of those games.

The best team in that bunch, Pittsburgh, will be missing Martavis Bryant and Heath Miller, and that means that the Dolphins defense can focus on Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell.  Don’t forget that new Dolphins defensive coordinator, Vance Joseph, was the secondary coach with the Bengals, so he has a lot of experience game planning for Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers.  The Jets have a tough defense, but until they figure out their quarterback situation, they will be a non-factor in the division. Cleveland is just an awful team; if the Dolphins lose to them, then we should turn in our NFL franchise card and go play in the Arena League.  Buffalo can be a difficult match-up, but our major problem playing against them over the past few years has been Mario Williams stampeding our right tackle; thankfully, that issue has been solved by “Super Mario” joining our side.

We will have to wait and see how the new stadium canopy affects the noise, sun and heat in the stadium, but the Dolphins will have more time to adjust to those changes than their opponents will, so hopefully it is a major home field advantage for Miami.

Later in the season, the Dolphins have a few more cakewalks against San Diego, the Los Angeles Rams, and San Francisco.  Neither the Rams nor the Forty-Niners have solidified their quarterback positions, and they are both in the middle of rebuilding projects.  The Chargers may be in the middle of their proposed move to Los Angeles following the 2016 season, so any home field advantage that they may have enjoyed could be rendered moot this year.  I am putting checkmarks next to those games.

So far, that is 8 wins that the Dolphins should be able to pull off.

The tougher games will be the road games against the Seahawks in the season opener, the Patriots in week 2, the Bengals in week 4, Baltimore in week 13, the Jets in week 15, Buffalo in week 16, and the home games against Arizona in week 14 and New England in week 17.

We can go ahead and put X‘s next to the Seattle and Buffalo games.  While we are counting on Adam Gase’s offense to take Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins to the next level, Gase has had no recent success against the Seahawks defense, with his Bears having lost 26-0 last year, and his Denver team getting beat 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII. And as for the Buffalo game, on Christmas Eve, I can feel the frostbite from here.  The Dolphins do not play well in late season games in Buffalo. So let’s say 2 X’s.

That leaves six games for the Dolphins to make or break their season.  Let’s say they split the games against the Patriots; remember that Tom Brady will be suspended for the first matchup, due to Deflategate, so that’s a good chance for the Dolphins to finally win one in Foxboro (1 checkmark, 1 X).  The matchup with the Bengals could go either way, but having Vance Joseph on board should give us an advantage in taking on his former team (checkmark).  The Ravens are a tough team as well, but we always play them tough, even pulling out a 15-13 decision last year, and again, Vance Joseph has had a lot of experience game planning against Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense (checkmark).  The Jets could be in a tailspin by week 15, especially if they have decided to start rookie Christian Hackenberg by that point of the season; plus the Dolphins generally play well in Met Life Stadium, so we have a good shot at winning that game (checkmark).  And the game against Arizona is the quintessential question mark game; are the Cardinals for real, having had two straight successful seasons under Bruce Arians, or are they going to fall back to earth this year? (X)

Prediction: 12 wins, 4 losses.