Do the Dolphins have a chance at the playoffs?
The Dolphins were written off after the first five weeks, but have now bounced back with victories over potential playoff contenders. Are the Dolphins now in the mix to make the playoffs for the first time since 2008?
With their second consecutive victory over a formidable opponent, the Miami Dolphins now enter the bye week with some much needed momentum. Through the first five weeks of the season, the Dolphins looked like they could be considered the worst team in football. In Week 5, Dolphins fans expressed their displeasure with starting QB Ryan Tannehill with a parade of boos during Miami’s loss to the Tennessee Titans. Fans and analysts quickly wrote off the Dolphins (myself included) of having any chance at success this season.
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Now, with victories over Pittsburgh and Buffalo in back-to-back weeks, Dolphins fans are turning their focus to a possible playoff berth for the first time since 2008. It’s crazy to think what a difference of just two weeks can bring, but the Dolphins look like a brand new team than the one who took the field in Weeks 1-5. The most obvious difference has been the huge success of the run game.
In the first five weeks, the Dolphins did not have a single player rush for over 50 yards. Jay Ajayi has now rushed for over 200 in back-to-back weeks, and in turn, has rushed himself into the record books. Ajayi became the 4th player ever to rush for 200 yards in back-to-back weeks, a list that includes former Dolphin Ricky Williams. With 10 broken tackles on the day, and a league leading 4.11 yards after contact, Ajayi deserves the bulk of the credit, but a healthy offensive line has helped Miami turn a corner on the season.
The Dolphins offensive line was declared healthy for the first time this season last week against Pittsburgh. Not only have they helped quadruple the success of the run game, they’ve given Tannehill the protection the Dolphins have been seeking for him since he entered the season. After being sacked 17 times through the first five weeks and the most overall since 2012, Tannehill has been sacked just once the past two games. An even bigger stat in those two victories: zero turnovers.
With the run game working so well, the Dolphins have not had to ask Tannehill to outright win the game for them. Anyone who thinks it’s just Jay Ajayi and the offensive line winning these games for Miami, however, hasn’t been paying attention. I am one of those who has criticized Tannehill in the past, but he has shown to be the leader Miami needs him to be these past two games.
While his stats don’t jump out at you, Tannehill has managed these two games better than he ever has. What does jump out at you are the positive changes on 3rd down efficiency and time of possession. Through the first five weeks, the Dolphins converted on just 31.8% of third downs. In the past two victories, Miami has converted on 46.1% of third downs. The Dolphins also won the time of possession battle by a wide margin of victory in both matchups compared to losing the TOP battle each game prior. As much as Tannehill has been criticized for his mistakes, he deserves just as much credit for his ability to maintain a well-balanced offense without throwing an interception. The vast improvements in both categories have been a major benefactor for the defense as well.
Sunday’s win puts the Dolphins at 3-4 going into the bye week. As it stands, Miami is just one game back from the final wild card spot, pegging the question as to whether or not the Dolphins can keep this momentum going and end their postseason drought. The Dolphins are tied with a plethora of teams at 3-4 so it’s still relatively early to determine how everything will turn out.
New England is 6-1 after their victory over the Steelers yesterday so the idea of the Dolphins winning the division seems a bit of a longshot. Miami’s schedule does get better, however, and should they remain healthy, could have a legit shot at a Wild Card spot in the 2016 NFL Playoffs. After the bye week, the road to the playoffs will start with a home date against the Jets.
The Dolphins have not had much success against the Jets in recent meetings. In fact, it was a loss to the Jets in the regular season finale of the 2013 season that kept Miami out of the playoffs. The Jets may be just 2-5, but the Dolphins will need to go into that game with a playoff mentality. Every game is important, but division games mean even more, and a 4-4 overall record with a 2-1 division record would put Miami in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth. In contrast, being 3-5 and 1-2 in the division would require some outside help to have any shot.
For now though we can embrace the idea of just thinking about the playoffs. This idea seemed like a pipe dream two weeks ago, but it looks like Adam Gase has his player personnel in place after the team’s purging of the roster. It’s important to note, however, that we have seen this before.
Just last year, the Dolphins handled the Titans and Houston Texans convincingly in back-to-back weeks after Joe Philbin was fired and Dan Campbell was named interim head coach. Hopes ran high, but eventually Miami regressed back down into another subpar season. Let us hope the Dolphins don’t have the same downfall this year coming out of the bye week.