Dolphins: Ride J-Train Til’ it Derails

Before someone can stop it, the Dolphins will continue their victorious journey aboard the J-Train. But just how long can it last?

In the past decade, the NFL has witnessed several teams’ win in a variety of different ways. Interestingly, this has created a stubborn dichotomy, on either side of which lies an opposing view as to what represents the most important aspect to a football team’s success. For many, winning the battle at the line of scrimmage is the most important. Alternatively, some argue quarterback, accompanied by skilled position players on offense is crucial to a team’s success.

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Truthfully, no single characteristic or position makes a team succeed in football. In fact, success in the NFL comes in a variety of ways: some teams win ugly; some teams win with finesse; and other teams, like the Miami Dolphins, haven’t figured out how to win at all on a consistent basis. But as we’ve witnessed in their last two games, the Dolphins may have found their winning formula.

The Dolphins have relied heavily on second-year running back Jay Ajayi—53 carries, 418 yards, 3 td’s—and their defense during their two-game winning-streak against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills. In these two games, the Dolphins offensive-line has dominated the line of scrimmage, and the defense has been opportunistic, finishing with two interceptions and six sacks during this span. More impressively, the Dolphins have become the seventh ranked rushing offense (120 yards per game), and their defense is holding opposing offenses to a 31.3 percent conversion rate on third down, which ranks them first in the NFL on the sport’s most crucial down.

There’s no question that the emergence of Jay Ajayi has sparked the floundering Dolphins back to life. The J-Train, as Dolphins fans prefer to call him, has been paramount, helping the offense move the chains, placing them in manageable third down situations, and taking a chunk of time off the game clock. In their last two contests, the Dolphins have taken ownership of the time of possession, holding onto the ball for more than 60 percent of the game (73:32 compared to the opponents combined 46:28).

The Dolphins’ newfound savior Jay Ajayi has also helped the team’s defense catch its breath on the sideline and, more so than previous games, play with a lead. With the Dolphins’ pass rushing capability, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph designed the unit to do just that: play with a lead. Now with the Dolphins’ defense playing fresh and well rested, we’ve been able to witness what kind of defense Joseph envisioned once he took over the unit this offseason.

But questions, however, still remain. How long will this formula last? Where was it all along? Have the Dolphins changed their identity? Is this reinvigoration reminiscent of the Dan Campbell situation a season ago?

A key factor for Jay Ajayi and the team’s recent success has been the health of the offensive line. While we’ve seen the J-Train resemble the gridiron heroes of yesteryear, the starting offensive line, for the first time this season, has also remained healthy. Without question, when center Mike Pouncey, guards Laremy Tunsil and Jermon Bushrod, and tackles Branden Albert and Ja’Wuan James play together, the Dolphins are head and shoulders a better football team. But can we expect the offensive line to stay healthy the remainder of the season? If history has anything to do with it, then no, we cannot. With the exception of James, all are injury prone (including Tunsil, considering his ignominious shower incident three weeks ago).

The Dolphins’ ferocious rushing attack has been the catalyst to their recent success. But they can’t expect to produce 200 or more yards rushing a game; they must have a backup plan in place. The conclusion can be drawn that the Dolphins, now five years into the Ryan Tannehill-experiment, don’t have a top-tier quarterback in their possession; therefore, they can’t rely on beating teams in a shootout with their lackluster air assault.

We saw what the Dolphins were before the J-Train arrived at their station—a horrendously bad 1-4 football team. Will panic set in if offensive lineman start going down due to injury, causing their new toy to come to a halt? No one knows for sure. In the meantime, before the inevitable happens, the Dolphins must play to their advantage. And their advantage is Jay Ajayi. As the old saying goes, “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it.” And in this case, the saying couldn’t be truer. Even if the Dolphins don’t have a backup plan, they should ride this train until it derails.