Dolphins first round pick more valuable?

Tuesday’s announcement by Tony Romo that he is accepting an analyst position with CBS means that the Dolphins 22nd pick probably just increased in value.

Cleveland

San Francisco

Chicago

Jacksonville

New York Jets

New Orleans

Arizona

Houston

The addition of Houston brings the total to eight teams that are likely looking to select a quarterback early in the 2017 NFL Draft. Each teams “level of desperation” is different so let’s break down the QB situation of each team and, on a scale of 1 to 10, how likely they are to trade up to the Dolphins 22nd pick.

Cleveland Browns

Brock Osweiler, Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan are currently set to fight it out for the starting role in Cleveland. However, few inside the organization, and fewer outside it, believe the long-term solution is currently on the roster. It should also be noted that the Browns QB situation has been in flux for over 30 years.

As for the draft, the odds are slim/none that Cleveland will select a QB with the first overall pick but, depending how the board falls, could choose one at #12. If they do so then obviously they won’t be a trade partner for Miami’s pick.

Possibility of a trade up with Miami: 1 (if they select a QB at #12)……8 (if they do not).

San Francisco 49ers

When your top two quarterbacks are Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley odds are you are selecting a QB in the draft. It would be highly surprising if the 49ers used the 2nd overall pick to fulfill that void. SF could wait till pick #34, and hope a QB falls to them, but that is a very risky strategy. My money is on them trading back into the first round.

Possibility of a trade up with Miami: 6

Chicago Bears

Despite signing Mike Glennon to an eye-popping three year contract, it’s essentially a 1-year deal with team options for years 2 and 3. Expect the Bears to select a QB in the first three rounds of this year’s draft but it isn’t as high a priority as it is for the previous two teams mentioned.

Possibility of a trade up with Miami: 5

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Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are the most ‘uncertain’ team on this list. QB Blake Bortles is only entering his fourth year with the team but it’s possible the Jaguars may be seeking a replacement. Unless they have fallen in love with a particular QB it’s doubtful they will trade up to select one in this year’s draft.

Possibility of a trade with Miami: 2

New York Jets

How bad is the Jets quarterback situation? Most people, myself included, have to look online to figure out who they have on their roster. (For the record, it’s 37-yr old journeyman Josh McCown, ‘barely used’ Bryce Petty and ‘never used’ Christian Hackenberg.) Is the Jets’ QB situation bleak? You bet it is! Would Tannenbaum be willing to trade with his former team? Yes, BUT it will cost you!

Possibility of a trade with Miami: 4

New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals

I lumped these two teams together because they both are in the exact same position. They have aging quarterbacks and may be looking to draft their replacement. Both select in front of Miami so why include them? Because if one, or both, select a QB in the first round, the Dolphins pick could become that much more valuable as teams see the possible options dwindle. Which brings us to the final character in the ‘soap opera’ that is the NFL Draft.

***It was brought to my attention by a reader (EdVilleLin) that the Saints have the Pats pick at 32 so an adjustment has been made.***

Possibility of a Saints trade with Miami: 5

Possibility of a Cardinals trade with Miami: 1

Houston Texans

With the Brock Osweiler trade to Cleveland, and Romo’s retirement, Texans are without a starting QB at this point in the offseason. The team can gush publicly about Tom Savage all they want but there’s a reason the team paid huge dollars to Osweiler last offseason and why Savage has only attempted 92 passes in three seasons with the team. Depending on how the first round falls, Houston could turn out to be the best trade partner for the Dolphins. Miami could leverage the interest of the first 5 teams, and Saints, to get Houston to pay a premium while Miami would only move back three spots in the first round.

Possibility of a trade with Miami: 8

Analysis

With the top four quarterbacks considered being “head and shoulders” above the rest, there are three ways this can play out and 2/3 of them would work in Miami’s favor. Here they are (from most to least likely).

Scenario #1: Like most drafts, QB-starving teams panic and select quarterbacks in the top 10 that have no business being selected that high. In this scenario, 2-3 teams have selected QBs and the Dolphins now hold the ‘golden ticket’ for the remaining teams that are desperate to grab a top signal caller in this draft.

Scenario #2: Teams show an unusual restraint in the draft and none of the quarterbacks are artificially pushed up the draft board. That would mean Miami’s 22nd pick would give a team the shot to trade with Miami to select the quarterback of their choice.

Scenario #3: All four quarterbacks are gone by pick 22 because needy teams overdrafted QBs AND New Orleans or Arizona decided to grab their “quarterback of the future”. In this scenario, Miami would have to hope for an elite prospect to fall for a team to have serious interest in their pick.

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