Let me tell you what the Miami Dolphins are doing in case you don’t know

Most fans are of the opinion the Miami Dolphins franchise is meddling in mediocrity with no end in sight. I disagree and I am going to explain why.

Now, granted some of this is speculative, but well, decide for yourself. Let’s revisit the last few Miami Dolphins seasons from a “potential” front office perspective.

Stephen Ross is now 78 years old. He was 75 when he hired Adam Gase. He knows time isn’t on his side at his age so he went after the coach most people were saying was the guy to get. Gase was at the top of their short list of candidates. It’s to Ross’s advantage to give him every resource within reason, and the time to make it work. Otherwise, you are starting from square one, again.

Ross signs Gase to a five-year contract, they appoint Chris Grier, who has never held the position before to GM, with Mike Tannenbaum on hand to be an experienced resource. Meanwhile, Tannenbaum took over free agency, contract negotiation, and cap management. Adam Gase got the final say on the 53 man roster, something Miami hasn’t offered a coach since Jimmy Johnson.

This made it pretty clear they were all in on Gase, an offensive-minded coach who had a history of varying success with quarterbacks such as, Tim Tebow, Peyton Manning, Jay Cutler, and Jon Kitna among others. He wasn’t a rookie to helping QB’s improve under his watch.

So knowing what we know so far if you are Ross what would your expectations be of Adam Gase?

This is where it gets interesting. Remember where Ryan Tannehill came from. Texas A&M. His head coach, Mike Sherman felt strongly enough about Tannehill he bet his job on it coming to Miami to be the offensive coordinator under Joe Philbin. When Philbin was hired this plan was immediately put into motion as Sherman was chosen to be his OC. All they needed was the pieces to fall in place on draft day. They did perfectly, and as anticipated.

Ross was on record saying Tannehill was going to be the next Marino, but Joe Philbin soured on the QB. Philbin was eventually fired and Ross was left with Tannehill. I believe Ross felt an allegiance to the QB. There’s every reason in the world to like the QB, he worked hard and had a clean image. So I am sure Ross questioned Philbin about the QB and his lack of significant progress, as well as their falling out. One can assume Ross questioning whether that falling out was personality or performance based. It’s pretty clear Ross wanted to seek a coach who he felt had what it takes to bring him along.

Ross then interviews Gase and the owner had to discuss Ryan and Gase’s feelings about him. I am reasonably confident this was something that was important to Ross because of the team’s investment in the QB. It is safe to assume Gase did his homework and was certainly willing to accept the challenge of mentoring him along with his staff. But, I am also pretty sure they discussed the possibility of Ryan not working out. I mean Gase had to ask that question, right? What if Ryan doesn’t produce as we expect? What if he has a career ending injury?

I would imagine Ross asked something like this, Adam, how long do you need to work with him before you will know whether he’s your guy? – Gase, generally by the end of year two. If he takes instruction well, works hard, and shows progression it should be clear by then. – Ross, give him three seasons. If at the end of the 3rd year you feel you want to go a different direction we’ll make it happen and allow you the remainder of your contract to get the offense up to our expectations. At that time we’ll reassess the direction of the team, our working relationship, and decide what is best for each of us.

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Meanwhile, there’s Tannenbaum and a cap mess that needs to be cleaned up. There’s a roster in need of turning over. All this takes time, about the same amount of time Gase needs to access Tannehill. We’re going to lose players to free agency and age. Those people need to be replaced.

A decision was made to stop the practice of signing top-shelf free agents and focus on stop gaps to fill out the roster. If you move ahead to 2020 no player’s cap hit is higher then 5% of the available projected cap with two exceptions. Tannehill and Reshad Jones. Jones can be let go at the cost of $8M in dead money, and Tannehill $5M. So both are very doable should the team decide to go that route. The books look solid for the future.

The top free agents to consider resigning in 2019 are Wake, Hayes, James, and Gore. Nobody else should be looking for significant money. I do not envision any of these signings significantly changing the 2020 cap situation other than James. The possible exception not mentioned is Devante Parker, but I just do not see him lasting that long in Miami.

If we move forward to 2020, Quinn, Branch, Sitton, Amendola Spence, Larsen, Howard, Aikens, Drake, Grant, and Haack all become unrestricted free agents. Based on today’s level of performance and considering age the must haves will be Howard, Grant, and possibly Drake. Howard would be the highest paid Dolphin under this scenario keeping the books in solid shape moving forward.

The key to this is we have two seasons to draft well, spend wisely in free agency and fill out the roster including the QB of Gase’s choice. This is ample time to get it done if management does their jobs.

I believe this has been their vision all along, and while I may not have their exact thought processes down I think this is fairly close to their overall strategy of a soft, but complete rebuild. Sign stop gaps, clear the books, and evaluate the QB. Try to field the most competitive team possible without extending too many contracts into Gase’s 4th and 5th seasons. This will allow the management team great flexibility in filling out the roster and allow Gase to field the team he envisions as they conclude the process in 2020.

It is actually solid, smart, and could very well be highly effective if they identify the right QB and resist the urge to overspend in 2019.

If I am close brighter days are not that far away.