The Miami Dolphins should not trade up for Kyler Murray

There has been a lot of buzz surrounding the Heisman Trophy winner since he declared for the NFL Draft. Kyler Murray will be heavily linked to the Dolphins leading all the way up to April, but that doesn’t mean that Miami should trade up to get him.

This was widely expected to be a weak quarterback class this upcoming April, and when Oregon’s Justin Herbert made the surprise move to stay in school for one more year, it appeared to have gotten even weaker. Then things got interesting when word got out that Oklahoma quarterback, and Heisman trophy winner, Kyler Murray, was thinking of declaring for the NFL Draft.

Murray is a dual athlete, and it was widely expected that he would choose to play baseball as his preferred career choice. The Oakland Athletics had already drafted Murray with the #9 overall selection in the 2018 MLB Draft, with the intentions that he could be their center fielder within a few years. On Monday, however, Murray made it clear that he prefers to play football by declaring for the NFL Draft.

Even before he officially declared, the Dolphins were one of the top teams linked to drafting Murray, and it makes perfect sense. Miami is all but officially done with Ryan Tannehill, and will look for a willing trade partner before ultimately deciding to let him walk. The object is finally clear in South Florida, and that is that the Dolphins are in the market for a quarterback.

Considering that Tannehill is the only quarterback drafted by the Dolphins in the first round since Dan Marino, it’s about time. That doesn’t exactly mean, however, that Miami will look to take one with their first pick in 2019. In fact, it’s unlikely. It was made clear earlier in the week that the organization is looking hard at the 2020 draft for their future franchise quarterback.

The 2020 class is viewed to be heavily deep with potential franchise quarterbacks with players like Herbert, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, and Georgia’s Jake Fromm, just to name a few, all expected to declare.

With the firing of former head coach Adam Gase, owner Stephen Ross made it clear without actually saying the word, that the Dolphins will be looking to rebuild in hopes to get the team out of mediocrity, and once again become a viable contender. Rebuilds typically take a lot of losing in the beginning in order to win down the road. As a result, the Dolphins are not expected to win a lot of games in 2019, and could find themselves with a top selection, and a prime spot to snag one of the coveted quarterbacks in 2020.

Even though Miami is already looking at 2020, it hasn’t stopped people from believing that they will take a quarterback in 2019. I believe they absolutely will, and that it’s just a matter of where in the draft that they take one. With the 13th pick, the Dolphins are in familiar territory. Not good enough to make the playoffs, but not bad enough to select at the top of the class in hopes to get a future QB. We saw it last year when Miami selected at #11, and four quarterbacks were taken within the top 10.

Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins is the only quarterback in this class unanimously projected to be off the board by the time Miami selects. All of the other projected first rounders, including Murray, are all over the place, and have been linked to the Dolphins in various mock drafts.

ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. released his mock draft 1.0 on Thursday, and he has the Dolphins taking Murray with the 13th overall selection. If Miami is really high on Murray after conducting a full evaluation on him from now until late April then taking him at 13 is absolutely fine. His size is an obvious concern, but if Chris Grier and company don’t believe that it will be an issue for him, and that he has the potential to be a franchise player, then go for it if he falls in your lap. Miami is not in a position, however, to sell the farm in order to get him.

Dolphins fans have to prepare themselves now that the 2019 season is going to be bad. Like really bad. Not the 6-10, 7-9, 8-8, types of bad where they just miss out on the playoffs. No, it’s likely going to be more along the lines of 5-11 or worse, and filled with a season of frustration and disappointment. The long-term goal is what matters here though, and in order to get back to contention, Miami must endure some losing seasons, while also acquiring assets in the form of draft capital.

Once free agency gets underway in March, Miami is expected to depart from a lot of their veteran players. And truthfully, that’s probably going to include some players that a lot of fans still like, and that can still contribute. Those players may not be in the long-term plans, however, and Miami will look to get what they can for them while they still hold value.

Should Miami really grow a liking for Murray, and exchange a bunch of their draft assets to move up and get him would be a big mistake in their intent to rebuild. For Miami to move up from 13th into the top 10 or even top 5 would likely cost them a first round pick next season, and a second or third this season. That future first is projected to be top 10 or higher with or without Murray, and that’s an extremely high cost for an undersized quarterback. If Miami were to pull that trigger, and they find out quickly that Murray is not the answer, they would then have nothing to show for it in 2020.

Whereas taking him at 13 minimizes the risk. Yes, if Murray turns out not to be the answer then the Dolphins missed out on a potential pass rusher or a player to bolster their offensive line in a class where both groups are relatively deep. The bright side would be that the Dolphins in all likelihood will still be drafting high after a poor season, and they can take a quarterback they’ve been high on in 2020. Contrary to what some may say, there is no problem with Miami taking a quarterback in back-to-back seasons. It is the most important position on the football field, and sometimes it takes multiple hits to get it right.

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There are other quarterbacks that Miami could take at 13 that they have been mocked to. Guys like Missouri’s Drew Lock and Duke’s Daniel Jones are players that the Dolphins could consider with their first round pick, but like Murray, none are worth moving up to get. As I mentioned earlier, outside of Haskins, these quarterbacks projections are all over the place. I’m not as high on Lock as many others are, and wouldn’t be interested in Miami taking him at 13. The same goes for Jones as well. If any of these players fell to the Dolphins in the second round, however, or if Miami makes a move to trade down, then the interest would be much more appealing.

The idea of trading down should always be in the mindset of the Dolphins management. They declined that opportunity last year with the Saints, opting to draft Minkah Fitzpatrick with the 11th overall selection, and the intent to win now. Fitzpatrick was tremendous in his rookie season, but the attitude is different now with Miami looking towards the future rather than winning in the present. If an opportunity comes to them to acquire more picks than they absolutely need to consider it. Even more so if an opportunity includes acquiring additional first or second round picks in 2020.

The bottom line is that Miami needs to stay the course, and not rush into anything. No one knows exactly how long this rebuild will take. We’ve seen in the NFL where a rebuild can take just a couple of years. Should one of the top quarterbacks (Haskins, Murray) fall to them this year then they absolutely should take him. It could help speed up the rebuild with a franchise quarterback already on the roster, and nothing is guaranteed for next season.

Even if the Dolphins are bad next year, there are other teams that could still be worse, and they still may be out of position to get their guy. So if the opportunity is there now, take it. They’re just not in the position to break the bank to do it. The rebuild doesn’t need to take years and years to be complete. They just need to be smart about going at it in order to avoid any setbacks.

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