Miami Dolphins should pass on Philadelphia Eagles QB Nick Foles

The Miami Dolphins organization has been clear with their plans to rebuild. Acquiring Nick Foles in a trade or through free agency would counteract that strategy.

When it was announced that Miami Dolphins head coach Adam Gase would be fired, owner Stephen Ross confused many in the press conference when he claimed it was because Gase wanted to win now. It was poorly worded by Ross at the time, but the indication soon became clear that the Dolphins are in need of a rebuild, and that wasn’t going to be something that Gase would be interested in entering a fourth year.

On Monday, the Dolphins made it official by announcing Brian Flores as the next head coach. Of the eight new head coaches hired this year, Flores was the only one to receive the full five years of his contract guaranteed. Of course Miami can still fire Flores at any time, but that’s an indication that the organization is willing to be patient with their new hire.

Whether you want to call it a rebuild or tanking is your personal preference, but the end result will ultimately be the same. The Miami Dolphins are not expected to be good in 2019. It’s a formality that Dolphins fans are going to have to accept sooner or later. Of course, players are not going to simply throw away games like the 1919 Black Sox, but the Dolphins are going to roster generally younger, and inexperienced players, that are likely to lose a significant amount of games.

The bright side is that in the NFL rebuilds don’t necessarily need to take a long time if done correctly. The Dolphins themselves went 1-15 in 2007, and in the very next season finished 11-5, clinching the AFC East. Miami was unsuccessful in building off of that successful season, but it’s been shown across the league that it can be done in relatively quick fashion.

The biggest question mark for the Dolphins going forward is what to do at the quarterback position now that Ryan Tannehill is all but officially out of the picture. The organization has already made it public that they plan to look extensively at the quarterbacks coming out of the 2020 draft. That would indicate that Miami doesn’t have very much interest in the 2019 class, but management has stated that they wouldn’t rule out taking one this year.

Picking at 13 would likely result in the big names coming out this year to already be off the board by the time the Dolphins select. And unless Miami truly falls in love with a player, it’s likely not worth it for them to trade up to grab that guy, and part with draft capital. If the big names at quarterback are off the board, expectations are that the Dolphins will select a defensive player at 13, and probably take a quarterback in the later rounds that they can develop this year. Don’t be surprised if that’s the strategy they take even if there is a quarterback highly coveted still available for them at 13.

For 2019, it’s highly possibly that the Dolphins acquire a veteran quarterback as a one-year stopgap to be their starter. There are five top potential free agents at quarterback this off-season, and Miami has been linked to all of them in some capacity. It’s a relatively weak free agent class, but it’s clear that the guy who tops this list is Nick Foles.

Foles has really made a name for himself in his second stint with Philadelphia. Just a year removed from Super Bowl MVP honors, Foles is expected to be highly rewarded this off-season. It remains to be seen how exactly the Eagles handle this situation, but Foles holds the leverage at this point.

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Philadelphia announced that they would pick up the team option of $20 million to retain Foles, but Foles will void that by exercising his $2 million buyout clause, allowing him to be a free agent. Philadelphia could still franchise Foles at the cost of roughly $25 million in the hopes to trade him, but that’s a risky strategy. With not much cap room to begin with, it may be more suitable for the Eagles to just let him walk.

Should that happen, Foles and his agent won’t need to wait long to find a new team, and will have the opportunity to choose from at least a few. That has sparked speculation as to where exactly Foles will end up, and the latest betting odds are out. The early odds from Bovada list the Dolphins as the leading favorites to land the former Super Bowl MVP.

With the direction that the Dolphins are reportedly headed in, I highly disagree that Miami is the landing spot. I also don’t believe that it’s a good one for the Dolphins. Foles has done a good job of creating a heavy market for himself, and Eagles coach Doug Pederson should be praised for a substantial part of it. The truth is, Foles is going to get paid very rewardingly, and there are going to be teams willing to give him money that exceeds his worth in order to obtain him.

Foles is a good quarterback, but by no means elite. Many believe that he benefited from the Eagles system, and that may very well be the case. Time will tell whether that’s true or not, but one team will have to gamble by spending $20+ million per year to find out. For a team like Miami that’s supposedly looking to hit the reset button, that’s not a wise investment.

The Dolphins are better off looking at a one-year investment player like Teddy Bridgewater or Tyrod Taylor to be the starter in 2019. Or they could just roll out a young guy like Luke Falk, Jake Rudock, or a player that they draft in April to see what they have. That approach may not be the popular one among Dolphins fans unless the player drafted is Dwayne Haskins, Kyler Murray, or Drew Lock, but if the plan really is to rebuild then why not? It would seemingly increase your odds of getting a better draft pick in 2020 to grab the quarterback of your choosing.

Although I believe Foles is better than Tannehill, I’m not sure he makes the Dolphins as a whole that much better. There’s a strong possibility that even with Foles, Miami is probably still a 7 to 9 win team, and that they could still be stuck in mediocre purgatory. That’s a recipe for disaster if you’re the Dolphins.

That’s why as good as Foles has been in Philadelphia, I don’t think it makes much sense for Miami from a long-term perspective. Personally, I would have the Jaguars, Giants, and the Redskins ahead of the Dolphins, in that order, as likely landing spots for Foles.