Miami Dolphins 2020 Draft Profile: Quarterback Justin Herbert
By Nick Belotto
Justin Herbert has been on everyone’s radar as a potential franchise quarterback. Do the Dolphins have a chance at getting him, and should they want him?
The Miami Dolphins, as reported by nearly everyone who has written anything about the draft or the Dolphins over the course of the last decade, need a long term solution to their quarterback problem. In a surprising twist, I also agree and think that the answer to this question could be found in the upcoming 2020 Draft. There are a number of names that have been associated with one of the Dolphin’s first-round picks in 2020, most specifically Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert. I have already written on the potential for Tua to come to Miami in the draft and now, our look the Dolphin’s draft continues with his Oregon counterpart.
Justin Herbert, Quarterback Oregon
2019 stats: 3471 Yards, 32 TDs, 6 INTs
Chances for the Dolphins to draft him: Medium to High
Justin Herbert. There’s no questioning his talent. He has a good arm, generally makes all the throws you want in a franchise quarterback and is athletic enough to run the ball a little here and there. By all accounts, he performed well at the Senior Bowl (which, of course, needs to be taken with a grain of salt) and has shown he can win football games, evidenced by his 29-14 record. He also improved every year statistically in college, which is always a welcome sign, especially at the quarterback position.
My biggest issue with Herbert is the “it” factor. I don’t think he has it. He’s a fine player, but he struggles with decision making at times and definitely needs to work on the complexities that will come with an NFL playbook. He also has some injuries in the past but nothing that screams “injury concern” to me.
I can look past those negatives and still see some athletic potential in him, I just don’t see that “it” factor. He never wowed me in the same way that guys like Tua or Burrow did in their time at the college level. He never really wowed me in any way and I worry that will translate to the NFL poorly.
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With those concerns, let’s look at the chances of the Dolphins taking him. Sitting at #5, the Dolphins may be in a perfect position to take the senior quarterback. But should they? At #5, depending on how the board fell, they could take an elite defensive talent, like Isaiah Simmons (who I like a lot) or Jeffrey Okudah. Or, they could take a different quarterback, like Tua who could be there at 5. In reality, Herbert will be available at #5, but doesn’t, in my opinion, warrant that high of a pick. Let’s assume, for this scenario, that Miami chooses to pass on a QB at #5 and Herbert is still on the board at #18. I’d feel significantly more comfortable with taking him there, although I still wouldn’t be thrilled with it. Overall, I think QB is an important need, but I’m not sure I’d spend a first-round pick on Herbert at any point.
With three first-rounders, the chances for drafting the Oregon QB are higher than I feel comfortable with. Maybe he has a great combine which changes my opinion on him, but I don’t foresee that happening. My hope would be that Miami passes on Herbert at #5 minimally and maybe considers him later in the first round. He is not worthy of that #5 pick.