Miami Dolphins poised for success thanks to Chris Grier and company
By George Keim
The NFL draft is just over two weeks away, and with all that’s going on in the world, the Miami Dolphins continue to be in a good spot.
In an article I wrote at the beginning of March, I talked about how good of a position Chris Grier had put the Miami Dolphins franchise in with regard to both free agency and the draft. Now that half of that equation has started to play out let’s see if my opinion still holds true.
When free agency began the Miami Dolphins were quick to strike on several free agents, primarily focusing on the defensive side of the ball. Dolphins GM, Chris Grier, had plenty of money to get the guys he wanted and did so with, for the most part, mutually beneficial contracts for both team and player. In my opinion, the Dolphins have had a very good free agency period to this point.
Miami’s defense and special teams should be much improved with the additions of Byron Jones, Kyle Van Noy, Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson, and Elandon Roberts as well as Clayton Fejedelem and Kamu Grugier-Hill. Grier also addressed two areas of need on the offensive side of the ball with the acquisitions of offensive linemen Ereck Flowers and Ted Karras and running back Jordan Howard.
There are still plenty of free agents available, including some very big names, and I think the Dolphins will still kick the tires on some guys but for now I think the Dolphins have shifted their focus to the second part of the equation, the draft.
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As the calendar turned to April so has the Dolphin’s attention. I’ve made it clear that I think Grier did a great job in putting the Dolphins in a good position with regard to free agency, but the draft is the place where he really has the opportunity to hit a home run, or two. Just in case you haven’t heard the Dolphins have a lot of draft picks in the upcoming draft.
The constant debate on social media is what are the Dolphins going to do with all this wealth. Initially, everyone wanted to trade up to number 3 to ensure they got Tua Tagovailoa. Then came the, just stay at number 5 and he will be there. Followed by staying at number 5 and taking Justin Herbert because, well, that’s who they really like. Now the tides have seemed to turn to “we didn’t gather all this draft capital for nothing, trade up to number 1 and let’s go get Joe Burrow”.
For the record, I’m in the stay at number 5 and see how the draft plays out camp, but no matter what your preference is, the fact remains, Chris Grier, put the Miami Dolphins in this much-desired position.
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Let’s take a deeper look though. I don’t need to say it but I will anyway, the draft is not absolute. Just because a team has a high draft choice doesn’t mean they will get a franchise-changing player and this is why I like the Dolphins position and why I don’t want them to trade up giving away some of the acquired draft capital. The draft success rate for the first rounds hovers around 53% per the Riot Report. They used a metric from Pro Football Reference called Approximate Value. Based on their findings, the first-round draft selection position has the following success rate:
Positions 1 through 5 – 77%
Positions 6 through 10 – 51.4%
Positions 11 through 15 – 57.1%
Positions 16 through 20 – 51.4%
Positions 21 through 32 – 47%
So basic statistics and probability tell you that the Dolphins have a much higher chance of drafting a successful player based on the number of first-round picks they have.
Now enter the novel coronavirus. Teams have been handcuffed by the pandemic in that they are unable to meet with players, work players out or have their medical staff evaluate players. These are integral parts of the draft evaluation process. Again, basic statistics would tell you that due to this the previously mentioned success rates are bound to decrease. So, having more picks increases a team’s success rate potential. While the Dolphins and Grier had no way of foreseeing this variable, the Dolphins are in the best possible situation to be successful in the draft.
It’s been a fun offseason to be a Miami Dolphins fan and in just over two weeks the fun really begins.