The Miami Dolphins may want to draft a quarterback on Thursday night or they may want to draft someone else. Either way, trading up to three makes cheap sense.
For the Miami Dolphins, trading up to three is not going to be as expensive as many once thought. The Detroit Lions are kind of in a bad spot and because of that, the value for the pick “should” be lower that it normally would.
Let me explain. Two teams are in a position to move up to number three. The Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Chargers. Both are seeking quarterbacks but neither team is a lock to draft one with their first pick. The Lions are not drafting a quarterback. They want defensive help and no one they take at three overall is not going to be available at five or six.
Picking number four, the Giants are not moving from that spot. David Gettleman doesn’t trade first-round spots. They want the top offensive tackle in the draft, Tristan Wirfs and moving back to any spot will take that away from them as the Dolphins could be a team that would drop their QB plans to take the OT.
This means that the Lions are in a spot that two teams want but won’t pay to get. The issue is that both the Chargers and the Dolphins both view quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert as similar draft prospects. Both come with high ceiling talent but both also come with a lot of concerns. Health for Tua, consistency with Herbert.
The fact that both teams now are viewed as being content to take whichever QB is there, the Lions no longer can dangle a big carrot over their heads. Everyone knows the Lions want out so they take Isaiah Simmons or Jeff Okudah and both players would still be there at five or six. The once pricey number three spot isn’t so pricey now.
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Of course, that all will and could change significantly. Once the draft begins, general managers begin to panic. They begin to start overthinking what and who they are targeting. They start to hear the whispers that the team behind them wants the guy they want. It is why a GM like Rick Spielman traded a fourth-round pick in 2004 to move up one spot to draft a right tackle, Vernon Carey instead of staying put.
This, however, is different. The price to move up should not be that costly. I have been a proponent of staying at five or even trading back and getting more picks. This changes due to the situation with the Lions and the current state of the QB’s. If the Dolphins want one of the QB’s over the other, this should be a cheap way to get him, the Chargers may not be bidding against them at all, no matter what the Lions want them to think on draft day. It could be a good night for Chris Grier who has a good track record of getting the better end of trade deals.