Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa could fall in NFL Draft and here is why

During the 2007 NFL Draft, the media was going crazy as quarterback Brady Quinn fell further and further. This week, it could be Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa.

The NFL Draft is full of surprises each year. We have seen Aaron Rodgers fall deep in round one and we saw Laremy Tunsil fall from one overall to thirteen. This year, one of those players might just be Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert.

The top of the draft has been crazy at times. This year could be crazier. There may be a flurry of trades or there may be nothing more than expressionless faces as one quarterback falls out of the top five and potentially out of the top ten. The notion, after spending almost a full year mocking Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert as locks for the top four spots won’t be met with a lot “oh, wow you’re right” but know this, it could happen and here is why.

Not as many teams need a quarterback as you might think.

There it is. Plain and simple. Teams do not need a quarterback to the point that they would take one in round one simply because they fell.

Joe Burrow will go number one to whoever is sitting there. If it is not the Bengals, no quarterback will fall from the top five. If the Miami Dolphins trade up, the draft goes like this. Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Tristan Wirfs, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa. Or some variation of that. If the Bengals stay at one, don’t be surprised if one QB falls.

We can assume that either the Dolphins or the Chargers will try and trade up to three but every day there is more talk that both will stay put and take whichever quarterback isn’t drafted by the other, in this case, whoever the Dolphins don’t take. To a degree, I can understand why. With Tua’s health concerns and Herbert’s consistency with accuracy, the two are pretty close when it comes to comparing risk.

Earlier today I released a full first-round mock draft and I have the Chargers moving up to four with Miami content to keep their picks and stay at five. This is where the fall could come. If Los Angeles takes Tua, I think the Dolphins may pass on Herbert and draft a defensive player, maybe Isaiah Simmons or go with the best offensive tackle in the draft that is still on the board.

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If this happens and this will also happen if the Chargers take Herbert and Tua is not taken by Miami. Say what you want but if I’m Chris Grier, I know what the need behind me is and I know who may or may not trade up. In other words, I might get him further down for much cheaper.

Let’s start with pick number six which may belong to the Lions. They are not taking a QB but likely a corner or edge rusher. At number 8, the Cardinals are not drafting a quarterback. Things get interesting at number 9 with the Jaguars but here is why they will not draft a QB here.

The Jaguars are committing themselves to Gardner Minshew for at least this year. They traded Nick Foles and while Minshew is no guarantee, the Jaguars need to give him support and whether that is by building a better defense to fill the gutted roster or offensive line support, the Jaguars can’t really afford to draft a QB despite the speculation from the media to the contrary.

At 10 and 11 the Browns and the Jets are not taking a quarterback. Both have young signal-callers. Now, Tua or Herbert has fallen to number 12. You can say they won’t get past Jacksonville but I told you why they might. The Raiders are a different story. They have Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota and neither are considered to be long-term answers. If either player is available, there is a good chance that the Raiders draft one, especially since they have two first-round draft picks.

Here is the rub though. Jon Gruden wants a receiver in a bad way and there is chance that the Broncos trade up to get in front of them for a receiver. If that happens, a run on receivers will happen and the Raiders will draft one of the top two remaining guys. It is doubtful they move back up for a QB.

At 13, 14, 15, 16, and 17, no one is taking a QB. The 49’ers, Buccaneers, Broncos, Falcons, and Cowboys have more needs in round one. That takes us to the 18th pick where the Dolphins are selecting and what do you know. Herbert or Tua could be there. But I know what you are thinking. A team could trade ahead of them and that is a possibility but who will trade up? Jordan Love is still on the board and some think he has a higher ceiling than Herbert. So would someone spend draft capital if that is true?

Again the Raiders come into play as they are picking number 19 and the Jaguars would again be in play at 20. Both would need to trade up to at least 17 to draft either QB if they are still there. It thins out afterward with the Eagles and Viking not needing a QB and then the Patriots. The Patriots need to draft a QB but are Belichick’s “know it all” ego going to trade up ahead of Miami for Tua or Herbert? Yes, that is a real possibility and it wouldn’t cost New England much. After the Patriots no one needs a quarterback in round one. The Colts need a QB even with Philip Rivers but they are not going to trade up from round two to the middle of the first for one.

This really isn’t an exercise in Miami getting one of those two QB’s at 18. I don’t think they will but I recognize that it is a possibility. A strong possibility actually. In fact, it would not shock me to see one of those two sitting there at 12.

For my money, if this happens, I think the Dolphins will trade up from 18 to get ahead of the Raiders. This could play out two ways. If both Herbert/Tua or Love are on the board when the Raiders pick at 12, the Dolphins will stay put and maybe trade up a couple of spots if the Raiders take a QB. If the Raiders pass, I think Miami will get a QB at 18 as there will be two QB’s on the board and only the Patriots will trade up to get one.

This works for the Dolphins if they view all three QB as close to being equal. If they value one clearly over the other, it doesn’t matter and we can reverse this entire thing and the Dolphins are moving up to take a QB but if I’m Chris Grier, I’m staying at five drafting someone else and playing the game after pick 10.