What are Miami Dolphins mock drafts telling us if anything?

There are hundreds of Miami Dolphins and NFL mock drafts circulating on the internet. They start the day after the draft and last all season but they really ramp up when the Super Bowl concludes.

Earlier today, we looked at four different Dolphins’ mock drafts for comparison purposes but now we are going to dive into what others think the Dolphins will do with their first pick in the draft.

There is a lot of focus on pick number three and while I prefer to think about what might happen later in the draft, what Miami does with that third pick will dictate the rest of the draft.

On NFLmockdraftdatabase.com, they compiled a percentage of combined mock drafts from all different sources to get a consensus of who may go where. We can start here.

76% of the 50 or more mocks have Trevor Lawrence going to the Jaguars at number one. This is ridiculously low in my opinion. At number two, the Jets are the big question mark. 25% is the leading consensus for the Jets at number two. Justin Fields is the top choice but 75% of other mock drafts have them taking someone else. Yet all those other players don’t equal more than 25% for Fields.

At number three, Ja’Marr Chase is the top choice for the Dolphins with 36% and this could rise in the coming weeks. There is no consensus pick for Miami higher than 36. We need to note that Atlanta is 27% Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance is 25% mocked to Carolina. This is important if the Dolphins want to trade back as those could be the top teams to move up.

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Sliding down to 18, Najee Harris leads the Dolphins mock draft with 10%. Harris in our previous mock drafts came off the board between 16 and 20 almost every time.

We are going to move on from looking at the consensus picks and look at what these mock drafts think Miami will do at three. On the first page of the database, 35 mock drafts are represented from NFL Mocks to CBS, Yahoo Sports, Walter Football, and more.

Out of these 35 mocks, the Dolphins trade the third overall pick 9 times including one to the Texans in what we can assume is for Deshaun Watson. Two predict the Dolphins will trade down with the Eagles, one to the 49’ers, one to Atlanta, and four to the Panthers.

The Panthers make a lot of sense as they draft at pick 8. It would be only a five-spot drop but Miami will still get one of the players they are likely targeting at three and should get decent compensation back. In each scenario but the Texans trade, a quarterback is taken. We can discount one of the Eagles trades as they won’t trade up for a QB. The Texans drafted a receiver.

Looking at the players that Miami would draft at three, strictly from these 35, Ja’Marr Chase is at 7, Sewell at 4, Jaylen Waddle with one pick, lineman Rashawn Slater with one, and DeVonta Smith with 13. This tells me that some of the consensus’s picks may be outdated. It also tells me that most believe Miami will target a receiver with pick number three. In 31 of the 35 mock drafts, Sewell was on the board 27 times and not drafted by the Dolphins.

While not of this sheds light on to what the Dolphins will do in round one, there is a growing indication that many believe Miami will go the receiver route. That could be exactly what Chris Grier wants them to think.

At pick 18 we sampled 17 mock drafts and Gregory Rousseau led with being drafted at 18, five times. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was drafted four times. Najee Harris only went three times but in many cases was already off the board. Micah Parsons fell and was drafted twice while Kity Paye, Zaven Collins, and Alex Leatherwood all were drafted once.

If there