The NFL Draft will really start with the fourth overall pick
No one can predict what will happen during this upcoming NFL draft. The truth is there is too much unknown, smoke and mirrors, and enough gossip for us to start a new daytime soap opera. Regardless of the outcome, the Miami Dolphins no longer control their destiny on the top non-quarterback selection and will have to await the outcomes of two key teams to determine who they will select 6th overall.
The Miami Dolphins traded out of the third overall selection and obtained two first-round picks, then in less than 20 minutes, they traded back up to the 6th overall selection. The downside in this trade is that the Dolphins lost the leverage to obtain the top player on their draft board and introduced an element of risk to their draft board. If the Dolphins loved, LOVED a player, I doubt they would have traded away the 3rd overall selection, but the Dolphins obtained an extra 1st and 3rd round selection in future drafts.
With less than 17 days to the NFL draft, predicting the outcome is rather easy for the first three picks. Everyone understands that the Jacksonville Jaguars will take Trevor Lawrence. The New York Jets will and the San Francisco 49ers will also draft quarterback, who they select will mean nothing to the Dolphins, just that a QB is off the board.
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The draft really starts at the 4th spot. The Atlanta Falcons could select a quarterback, as Matt Ryan is old and has 20MM+ cap hit for the next few years, or they can build around him. The Falcons already have two dynamic wide receivers, so Ja’Marr Chase or DeVonta Smith don’t make sense. They could select an offensive tackle, cause Ryan is flat-footed and does require help in the pocket. OR, they could select Kyle Pitts and add more offensive firepower to team up with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. In a division with the defending Super Bowl Champs, New Orleans high flying assets, it makes sense for the Falcons to take the best player available and that is Kyle Pitts.
Next at 5, the Cincinnati Bengals, the Bengals are strictly focused on two players, Penei Sewell or Chase. Chase makes sense and their franchise quarterback, the one the Bengals took 1st overall last year, had his breakout Heisman year with Chase as his number 1 Wide Receiver, is preaching for this reunion to happen. However, the Bengals could think that protecting Burrow is more important than adding a playmaker, but let’s assume the chemistry is too hard to ignore and that the Bengals select Chase.
Now with Miami on the clock, the two top offensive playmakers are off the board. Yes, Devonta Smith is still on the board, and a reunion with Tua from their Alabama days would make an ideal match, and three months ago, everyone was already selecting Smith to the Dolphins with the 3rd overall selection, but time has changed all that. New scouting reports and insight have changed all that perception and scouts are presenting issues to everyone about Smith’s thin framework and if he could replicate what he did on the NFL landscape.
Taking all this into consideration, if you were Chris Grier are you comfortable taking Smith at 6? Or do you see a Defensive player that looks to make a difference? What I wouldn’t want to see is a non-game changer being selected, aka offensive tackle. Or, does Grier have another trade up his sleeve? If Atlanta passes on a quarterback, there are potentially two other prospects that could potentially allure another team to trade up? Grier could trade down to Broncos (who are looking for QB competition), New England (Coach Flores and Bill Belicheck do have history), or even Washington (who might sell the farm to get into the top 6).
In all honesty, if Atlanta decides to stay the course, and the Bengals complete an LSU reunion, the Dolphins are in a position, where the top two skill players out of their board. A trade down to accumulate more picks makes sense, but jeopardizes the caliber of the player, it might work out better in the 2022 and 2023 draft board, but since the Dolphins have been reluctant to spend in free agency, they arm themselves with draft capital once again to be players.
The other option is that the Dolphin trade up two spots with Atlanta to secure Pitts? This would potentially cost both their 2nd round picks a risk that isn’t worth the squeeze.
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The million-dollar question then becomes, if Pitts and Chase are off the board, do you go with DeVonta Smith or trade back? My vote, trade back again. Get Smith or Jaylen Waddle or Micah Parson and arm yourself once again with two 1st round picks for next year’s draft class. What do you think?