The Miami Dolphins salary cap situation and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa

As of right now, the Miami Dolphin’s salary cap is at its limit, and what happens when Tua Tagovailoa wants Patrick Mahomes-type money?

What makes football one of the most interesting sports for fans to follow is all the moving parts that are required to work in synchrony in order for an organization to be successful.  Many of us look at scouting, coaching, drafting, free agency, and the like.  But, how many of us look at the implications of the salary cap and how much money a team should put into each position (or position grouping).

For example, Mahomes is slated to make about 40 million, and his cap hit in 2022 is expected to be around 19% of the total cap.  I got the number from Spotrac.com.  I recommend you visit the page if you want more details as to how cap numbers are derived.

A top-tier quarterback will eat about 15% of your cap space and some up to 20%. Currently, Tua makes about 3.5% of the cap.  Luckily we have three to four more years before Tua’s salary is set to explode (if the Dolphins decide he’s worthy of keeping).

With how the salary cap works, as soon as Tua starts making the big bucks our chances of making a Super Bowl hinges on his shoulders alone. That’s right, a quarterback making big bucks taking a huge percentage of the cap needs to play to an elite pro bowl level or their team won’t win.

Do you remember when Jay Cutler’s extension killed the bears or when Joe Flacco’s extension killed the Ravens?  It’s all too common for an overpaid mediocre quarterback to pull down their team.  While researching this article I came across another article by Kevin Clark posted in Jan of 2019 with this quote.

"Patriots owner Robert Kraft told Sports Illustrated in 2013 that if Tom Brady made “elite” quarterback money, the team wouldn’t have been able to build a contender. His comments came before the great quarterback pay boom. Brady has taken less than his market value at basically every turn. A team can pay a quarterback a lot of money and win at a high level, but it becomes harder to build the rest of the roster."

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This is a warning for all teams with quarterbacks on their rookie deals. Would you rather have a journeyman like Fitzpatrick for 10 mil or pay Gared Goff 35 million a year for 4 years?  I’d rather have Fitzpatrick.  Would you rather have Tannehill at 30 mil per year or Fitzpatrick at 10 mil per year?  Again, I’d rather have Fitzpatrick.

I know some people right now are calling me a moron (and yes I’ve been called worse).  But, my ultimate goal is a Super Bowl, not just a winning season.

Let me run a couple of stats by you regarding quarterback salaries.

Since 1994, no team has won a super bowl with a quarterback taking more than 12.4% of the team’s cap space.

Many of the teams with quarterbacks taking larger percentages of the cap didn’t even make the playoffs or their teams had some serious weaknesses.

Matt Ryan 14.55% of the cap.  Falcons roster holier than Swiss cheese.  Russell Wilson 17.4% of cap. Seattle defense softer than a wet paper bag.  Kirk Cousins 16.55% of the cap. Vikings 7-9.  Let that sink in for just a bit.

And remember, I’ll say it again; Since 1994, no team has won a Super Bowl with the quarterback taking more than 12.4% of the cap space.

In today’s NFL, some of the best opportunities to make a Super Bowl run is when you’re star quarterback is still on his rookie deal.

Three years from now, it would be a big mistake to pay Tua top-tier dollars when his rookie deal expires if he’s only a mediocre quarterback.  You can overpay a lineman, a linebacker, or almost any other position and cover-up that mistake.  Covering up 20% of your cap space per year mistake… that is hard to do!

Yeah, the quarterback is important, and yeah winning without a good quarterback is all but impossible. But, if we want to make it to the big dance, we’ll need to think long and hard before overpaying for one.