I was wrong about Miami Dolphins WR Cedrick Wilson

The Miami Dolphins made quite a few moves this past offseason to address their 22nd-ranked offense. More importantly, they made moves in support of their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. One of their earliest moves was to sign wide receiver Cedrick Wilson, a free agent from the Dallas Cowboys, to a 3-year $22M contract at the onset of free agency.

At the time, I was incredibly excited. I couldn’t have been more wrong about how it would play out.

A Slot Receiver for Tua

At the time, and even right before the season got underway, I was incredibly bullish on Cedrick Wilson in this offense. Historically, Tua has leaned on the slot receiver and underneath throws a lot and this was the role Cedrick Wilson was brought in to fulfill. I was also excited because he was expected to be the exciting new offensive piece as the trade for Tyreek Hill was still 9 days away.

When the team added Tyreek Hill via trade, I became even more bullish on Wilson assuming teams would sell out to take away Waddle and Hill leaving Mike Gesicki and Cedrick Wilson to open up the seam and in the slot.

So, what happened exactly?

What I didn’t take into account was Mike McDaniel changing up his approach to play-calling from what many fans expected (run-first) to target Hill and Waddle over the middle of the field in a pass-first offense.

I also didn’t anticipate Hill and Waddle garnering such a high percentage of targets. I mean, I knew they were stars and would get a ton of attention but I also expected defenses to do a better job of taking them out of the game plan.

For reference, out of 584 total pass attempts by Tua Tagovailoa (400), Teddy Bridgewater (79), and Skylar Thompson (105), Hill and Waddle combined for 49% target share with 287 targets combined (170 to Hill alone).

The rest of those targets, 297 to be exact, went to 14 other pass catchers. Cedrick Wilson? He saw just 18 of those targets. 18 targets out of 584 attempts – good for a target share of just 3% – with just 12 receptions.

I also didn’t expect him to be overshadowed by journeyman wide receiver Trent Sherfield (9% target share). I don’t think anyone did.

Where do we go from here with Cedrick Wilson?

Cedrick Wilson is a talented wide receiver without a lot of wear on the tires, so to speak. At just 27 years old, Wilson has played in 53 regular season games across his 4 seasons with 79 receptions, 973 yards, and 9 total touchdowns (1 passing). In two career playoff games, Wilson has 6 receptions for 76 yards.

There’s bound to be interest around the league.

According to Spotrac, Wilson is owed a base salary of $7M this season with a $1M signing bonus. If Miami trades him before June 1st, they’d see a cap savings of $6M and a dead cap hit of just $2M.

For a team like Dallas, which desperately needs depth at wideout, Cedrick could be an easy buy for them if they can make some room within their own salary cap. He knows the system, wouldn’t cost much in trade (late-round pick swap?), and showed that his best ball so far has been played out of the slot in a Mike McCarthy/Kellen Moore offense.

There are also teams like Green Bay, Chicago, Baltimore, and Houston that would benefit from added depth at wide receiver, and a talented player like Wilson isn’t likely to be overlooked as a buy-low candidate.

Ultimately, the Miami Dolphins offense has shown that it can (and will) thrive with a high target share to Waddle and Hill, and with the impact of Sherfield and others, and with Erik Ezukanma waiting in the wings, the team finds itself with a surprising surplus at wide receiver. The time is now to recoup some value for a talented, but ineffective in this offense, wide receiver in Cedrick Wilson.