Jordyn Brooks' potential next Dolphins contract won't look how fans expect

The Miami Dolphins recently paid star running back De'Von Achane to be the face of their offense. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks could be the next domino to fall. He led the NFL in tackles in 2025. He earned First-Team All-Pro honors. He plays middle linebacker in Miami on a defense that needs him to stay.

Azeez Al-Shaair just signed a three-year, $54 million extension with the Texans. $18 million APY, third among off-ball linebackers behind only Fred Warner and Roquan Smith. The deal landed two weeks ago and immediately became the new ceiling for the position amongst players not seen as generational.

The Dolphins should pay Brooks. They won't pay him $18 million.

Here's why.

Why the Miami Dolphins should pay Jordyn Brooks, but not at the top of the LB market

Houston paid Al-Shaair like Houston pays everybody

Over The Cap lists Al-Shaair's deal at three years, $54 million, with $45.75 million in total guarantees and a $14 million signing bonus. By APY, he's the third-highest-paid off-ball linebacker in football. By guaranteed money, he's near the top of the position.

But this is just par for the course for Houston. Will Anderson Jr. just signed a three-year, $150 million extension that made him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history. Just a couple of years ago, they paid Nico Collins based on a one-year sample size. Nick Caserio's front office has more cash than most of his competitors, and they throw it around, giving strong deals to most of their players.

The right comp set is one tier down

Four off-ball linebacker extensions in the last 14 months sit at the next tier of the market. They're the right reference points for Brooks.

Three of them landed at $15 million APY. The fourth, Walker, came in at $13.5 million. That's the band Brooks should be evaluated against, not the Al-Shaair ceiling above it.

Brooks has outperformed this group in meaningful ways

Pulling the two-year window for each player, the most recent statistical sample that matters for projecting forward, Brooks's volume production is the best in the group. He outpaces the pack in per-game and in raw totals.

Brooks generated more tackles per game than any of the four. More stops per game. More splash plays per game, by a wide margin. He averaged 1.06 splash plays per game in 2024-2025. Bolton, the next closest in the group, averaged 0.62. Sherwood averaged 0.15.

But there is a drawback to his production

The question is what Brooks gives up to be that productive. The honest answer is what he allows in the passing game — and it isn't a one-year story.

Over the last three seasons, Brooks has played 1,468 coverage snaps. He's been targeted 241 times. That works out to one target every 6.1 coverage snaps. That is by far the highest rate in this group. Bolton sees a target every 9.1 coverage snaps. Sherwood: 8.9. Lloyd: 7.5. Walker, the closest comp here: 7.1.

And that's not a one year trend.

Brooks gives up 1.32 yards every time he drops into coverage. Bolton gives up 0.88. Sherwood gives up 0.86. The volume case for Brooks is real. The coverage case isn't.

Walker is the cleanest comp in this picture. His three-year yards per coverage snap (1.13) and passer rating allowed (111.7) are the closest to Brooks (1.32 and 108.7) in the comp set. Bolton and Sherwood operate in a different tier of coverage value. Walker signed for $13.5 million. That's the bottom of the band Brooks should be evaluated against.

Two-down thumpers get $13-14 million at the high end. That's Walker. But the All-Pro is real and will push his value higher.

Which puts him right back in the $15 million APY range. And that's where I come back to. A three-year extension for $46.5 million. A $500k per year lift in APY. And $31 million guaranteed. It puts him back at the top of this group and would make him the fifth-highest paid linebacker in the league.

While Brooks will look for Al-Shaair money at the outset of negotiations, he is unlikely to end up there because of his age (he will turn 29 this season) and because he isn't a free agent. The Dolphins hold most of the leverage because he is under contract, and if he refuses to sign and waits until next year, he's going to market trying to sell his 30s and likely a year removed from an All-Pro, not coming off of one.

The total deal

Adding in the final year of his current deal and the $8.375 million he is currently owed, the full deal becomes four years and $54.875 million. Only $22.625 million of the $31 million in guarantees would be new money, as his current salary isn't guaranteed. His effective APY, that is, the APY of the whole deal, would be just $13.718,750. That's just a tick above Walker's average cash flow.

With a large signing bonus to spread out the cap hits (Miami is in cap jail at the moment due to their purge of Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle), they can actually lower Brooks' cap number by about $4 million. The Dolphins can structure the cash flows to have the guaranteed money out by the end of 2027 with low salaries in 2028 and 2029 if he maintains a reasonable level of play.

This deal would reward their All-Pro, who is currently the 23rd highest paid linebacker in the NFL by APY measurement and 25th in cash this year. And they can do it by effectively only committing to one additional year. That's a deal in everyone's best interests.

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