With the 2026 schedule now released, it's only natural for win/loss predictions to dominate the internet. The popular predictions are the ones for playoff contenders, but for teams like the Miami Dolphins, it's all about losing.
Recently, Fox Sports made their full 272-game predictions for every team; the Dolphins, naturally, were at the bottom.
What is your team's projected win total after the full 2026 schedule release? 🏈 pic.twitter.com/jCtgtddHUw
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) May 19, 2026
The Miami Dolphins can win more than four games, but it won't be easy
The betting lines have the Dolphins at 4.5 wins in 2026, so it isn't surprising that Fox believes 4.5 is where the Dolphins will land. The Cardinals are the only team tied with Miami in that regard. Each team's quarterback situation is playing a major role in what many believe will be their problem.
The Dolphins, Jets, Cardinals, and Raiders all have questions at the position, but the addition of Malik Willis makes Miami's QB room look better on paper than the others.
Diving into the schedule, we can identify who gives the Dolphins the best chance to beat, but can they steal more?
The New York Jets
The Jets are predicted to win one more game than the Dolphins. Not a very high total for a team that made a lot of changes to their roster this year, presumably positive ones. The Jets are rolling with a QB competition between Geno Smith and Cade Klubnik. It's hardly a stellar group.
The Dolphins and Jets typically split their series in good years, so Miami is likely gaining a win from one of their two games. While they could easily drop both of those games, they could also just as easily win both of them.
The Las Vegas Raiders
Miami will open on the road in Las Vegas. They could face rookie Fernando Mendoza or veteran Kirk Cousins. The Raiders are undergoing changes as well, including a new head coach. This is a game that Miami can win and, frankly, should win. With a predicted 5.5 wins this year, the Raiders are not expected to be a good football team.
Miami's defense will be the key, but with the Dolphins' strong run game, they could control the tempo, clock, and the flow of the entire game from the start. Miami may not be able to win a shoot-out against anyone, but a ground attack takes pressure off the defense.
The Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings will hand the team over to Kyler Murray or J.J. McCarthy. Neither instills much offensive confidence. Yes, Miami is on the road, but beating the Vikings may not be that hard, given their week-to-week inconsistency. They are predicted to win 8.5 games, which keeps them in postseason contention but not among the teams expected to make it.
As will be the case in every game this year, Miami's run game will be the catalyst for a win or a loss. Can Miami go on the road and beat Minnesota? Absolutely, but it will take a strong game on both sides of the ball. Working against the Dolphins, however, is that they will face the Vikings earlier in the season when they are still working on the fundamentals that Jeff Hafley is trying to coach into them.
The Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals continue to be that team no one knows enough about to predict. Fox has them at 9.5 wins, but if Joe Burrow can't stay healthy, they could easily disappoint. They will play in Miami at 1:00 in early October when the heat is still a problem for many teams.
Miami will be hard-pressed to stop its passing game, given the youth and uncertainty in the secondary, but it's a winnable game if they can stick to the assignments and game plan. The Dolphins will have faced the Chiefs and 49ers before playing the Bengals, so they will have a chance to iron out some of their secondary problems.
The Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are projected to win 7.5 games this year. Most of that will be predicated on the return of Daniel Jones. They have an incredible run game, but their passing game can be inconsistent. Sure, they will test Miami's secondary, but Jones can be erratic.
Miami's key to this game is to stop their rushing attack. If they can do that and force the Colts to throw the ball while also controlling the ground game on offense, they could steal this game from a team that might look over them on the schedule.
What's left for the Dolphins?
The last game the Dolphins will have a chance to win might come against the Jets in late November. Miami will play its final six games against teams that are considered frontrunners for their division. The Broncos, Bears, Packers, Chargers, Bills, and Patriots.
What will be interesting is that the Dolphins are not likely to be favored in a single game this season. Their potential four wins, maybe five, will all come over the course of the first 11 games. Those 11 include the 49ers, Chiefs, Patriots, Lions, and Bills.
It's a tough schedule for a team that looks like an expansion roster, and if Miami wins more than five games, Dolphins fans should be through the roof on what direction they are heading.
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