For the Miami Dolphins to shock the football world and be a truly competitive team in 2026, they'd need a confluence of factors to work in their favor.
We're talking about an Elseworlds knock-off version of the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles "Dream Team" where a bunch of stopgap free agents actually hit. Blend that with a healthy dose of the Seattle Seahawks' 2012 draft class starring the likes of Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson, and that's what we're looking at here.
What does a successful season in year one look like for Miami's new regime? We know the low esteem the oddsmakers hold the Dolphins in, yet there are at least some reasons to be more optimistic than many would presume.
Latest over/under wins projection for the Miami Dolphins should alter fan perspectives
Vic Tafur of The Athletic broke down the season-long win total over/under betting lines for all 32 teams. Tafur suggests Miami will hit the over 4.5-win mark to finish with at least a 5-12 record. Here's his analysis:
"Poor Malik Willis. He takes his talents to South Beach, and then the Dolphins gut the roster. New play caller Bobby Slowik can’t be as bad as he was in Houston thanks to elite running back De’Von Achane, an underrated offensive line, a running quarterback and a Miami heat that wears down defenses. We’re going to need to sweep the Jets, but yeah, take the over."
Finishing no fewer than two games behind last year's 7-10 team would be nothing short of a staggering achievement. When you consider how much GM Jon-Eric Sullivan has overhauled this roster and how many young players head coach Jeff Hafley will be tasked with getting up to speed on the NFL in short order, winning five games is something of a Herculean effort.
I personally believe in the Dolphins more than most. Willis' presence and a high-upside offensive line should open up all kinds of running lanes for Achane. Hafley's defensive expertise, particularly in the secondary, should help first-round pick Chris Johnson be a solid starter at cornerback from the jump.
All those positives taken into account, it's hard to envision five wins from this group.
Yes, there's a world where Miami splits with the overrated Bills and Patriots, who are the clear top two teams in the AFC East. There's also a world where Josh Allen and Drake Maye just hero ball their ways to season sweeps of the Dolphins.
The New York Jets are the real laughingstock cellar dweller in the division. However, they spent all kinds of money this offseason to rapidly improve their roster. Nabbing two wins off them, as Tafur implies, won't be as easy as usual by a long shot.
Guess which two divisions the Dolphins have to face off with this year, too? The NFC North and the AFC West. A road trip to Las Vegas in Week 1 is by far the "easiest" of those eight games.
So while Miami should at least be competitive most of the way, this roster just doesn't have the personnel to finish games and stack wins.
But again, that shouldn't deter anyone who'll be a core part of this team moving forward. What matters is that the players buy in, don't give up when it gets tough, and band together even as the losses pile up. The Dolphins have loads of cap room the next two offseasons to boost this roster, and should have premium draft capital in 2027 at least.
This has the makings of a Detroit Lions-esque turnaround from some years back, once Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes took the reins. Remember, Campbell started 4-19-1 before the Lions started really ripping and roaring.
Hafley could be in for a similar trajectory, albeit maybe not the raging success Campbell is. MCDC boasts a 44-17 record since that rough opening stretch.
Just have patience, Phin Phanatics. Not that five wins is technically acceptable by any standard, but let's keep it real. That wouldn't be a total calamity. Sullivan and Hafley wouldn't be potential one-and-dones. It may serve as the hard-earned foundation for Miami's ascent back to NFL relevance.
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