Just about everywhere you look, the Miami Dolphins are being "heralded" as the worst team in the NFL this season. Bleacher Report, ESPN, NFL Spin Zone — if they've published a power rankings piece or anything adjacent, chances are the Dolphins are at the bottom or close to it. I suppose that means we shouldn't bother with the games, pack up shop, and invite Arch Manning to Miami first thing in the morning? Not so fast.
With that pesky little fact that zero — count 'em zero — games have been played, the reality is that all of it is just static noise as we await the season. While it's entertaining and all to see hit piece after hit piece aimed at the good guys in aqua and orange, sometimes you need a little reminder that all of it is subject to change. The NFL is a meritocracy, after all.
Here at the Phin Phanatic, we wanted to see just how these preseason rankings have played out over the years. We gathered the preseason power rankings from ESPN, NFL.com, and the lowest-rated Madden team (or teams in case of a tie) and compared them to how those teams finished the year. In the spirit of power rankings, we'll be ordering how these three groups did in determining the worst team in the league for a given year.
History shows that picking the worst team — and thus the holder of the No. 1 pick — means the Miami Dolphins may not be doomed just yet
We tracked the worst-power-ranked team from each preseason ESPN and NFL.com ranking since 2016, as well as the team with the lowest overall rating at launch for each Madden game of that period. This gives us a baseline of which team was viewed as the worst just before the season started, and with the benefit of hindsight, we can see how they finished.
Leading the way, the team dubbed by ESPN to be the worst in the league prior to the season ended up with an average draft pick of 5.7. They hit it right on the nose with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2020, and their worst prediction came with your Miami Dolphins in 2018 — who wound up picking 13th.
As for second place, that goes to none other than the fine folks at EA Sports. The team they ranked dead-last (or tied) before the season wound up picking at an average draft slot of 6.1. They had two direct hits: those same 2020 Jaguars and the Cleveland Browns in 2016. Their widest miss was with the 2017 Los Angeles Rams, who made a playoff run despite having the game's worst roster.
Finally, for the bronze medal comes NFL.com. It was a tight race, as their predicted worst teams picked at an average draft choice of 6.2. As fate would have it, they had the most direct hits in picking the team that selected first overall: the 2020 Jaguars (three-for-three — that was another level of stink), the 2016 Browns, and the 2022 Chicago Bears.
It was their performance in the other years that kept them from taking the crown, with the death knell coming from naming the Colts as the worst team in 2018, a year they would make a playoff run, win a playoff game, and ultimately select 26th overall.
In totality, with 30 predictions to go off of, there were six direct hits. That's about a 20% success rate in selecting the league's worst team at this supremely early juncture. In other words, no one out there knows how the 2026 Miami Dolphins will fare. Maybe they'll make a surprise playoff run like the aforementioned Colts or Rams. Maybe they'll wind up proving everyone and their mother right like the 2020 Jags.
As for what may be Dolphins fans' biggest fear, perhaps they'll finish right around league-average as they usually do. The truth is — anything can happen. Dolphins fans should know this better than anyone. When the season kicks off, this team will begin to write its story. Until then, let's kick back, put our feet up, and watch the cream rise to the top at training camp.
Add us as a preferred source on Google