5 things you need to know about the Dolphins Week 1 clash with the Jaguars
There’s little symmetry between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins when it comes to their 2023 campaigns. Unfortunately, that’s not a good thing.
A year ago, Doug Pederson’s team was looking to repeat as division champions. The Jaguars opened 8-3, but dropped five of their final six contests and failed to reach the playoffs. Meanwhile, the ‘Fins won nine of their first 12 contests and owned a three-game lead in the AFC East over the 6-6 Bills.
Mike McDaniel’s club dropped three of their last five games, Buffalo ran the table and a 21-14 home loss to the Bills in the final regular-season game of 2023 relegated Miami to being a wild card team. A week later, the Dolphins were ousted by the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. It’s a new season for a pair of clubs looking to put 2023 behind them.
All-Time Series Record
The Jaguars are making their first appearance at Hard Rock Stadium since 2018. These teams have split their 10 regular-season meetings, but the Jaguars actually own a one-game overall lead in the series thanks to a resounding 62-7 victory over the Dolphins in the 1999 AFC Divisional Playoffs at Jacksonville.
As for the clubs’ last meeting, the Jaguars came away with a 23-20 victory in 2021 at London’s Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Both Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa (329) and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence (319) threw for 300-plus yards. More significantly, Jacksonville snapped an ugly 20-game losing streak with the three-point victory, as placekicker Matt Wright connected on 53-yard field goal on the final play of the game.
Quarterbacks: Tale of the Tape
In mid-June, Jaguars’ signal-caller Trevor Lawrence signed a five-year, $275 million contract extension. One month later, the Dolphins inked Tua Tagovailoa to a four-year, $212.4 million contract extension. Both the first overall pick in 2021 and the fifth overall selection in 2020 will likely feel a little pressure to live up to those lofty deals. Each quarterback hopes to improve on their performance from a season ago.
In the case of Lawrence, he was a little banged up heading down the stretch in 2023. The talented pro threw for 4,106 yards and 21 touchdowns, but also committed just as many turnovers (14 interceptions, 7 lost fumbles). Meanwhile, Tagovailoa led the NFL with a career-best 4,624 yards through the air and connected for a personal-high 29 scores. However, the four-year pro committed 19 of the team’s 25 turnovers in ’23.
Defensive Analysis
Jacksonville and Miami have new coaches heading up their defensive units. The Jaguars have replaced Mike Caldwell and hired former Falcons’ defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen to take his place. Veteran Vic Fangio, who headed up the Dolphins’ defense in 2023, is now in Philadelphia. Anthony Weaver, who spent the previous three seasons with the Baltimore Ravens, is McDaniel’s new defensive coordinator.
Both the Jaguars (ninth) and Dolphins (seventh) ranked in the NFL’s Top 10 a year ago when it came to stopping the run. In terms of the pass-rush, Jacksonville defensive end Josh Hines-Allen has nearly half (17.5) of the team’s 40 sacks. Meanwhile, only the Ravens (60) and Chiefs (57) had more QB traps than Miami (56) this past season. However, a rash of injuries to the club’s edge-rushers late in the season indeed spelled doom.
Keys to the Game
Jaguars: It sounds elementary, but ball security is a huge factor when it comes to Pederson’s club. In 2022, the Jaguars came away with 27 takeaways—tripling their total from the previous season (nine). This past season, Pederson’s club once again forced 27 turnovers. However, Jacksonville gave up the ball a disturbing 30 times (compared to 22 in 2022). Ironically, the Dolphins also forced 27 turnovers in 2023.
Dolphins: McDaniel’s club was ranked first in the NFL in total yards and passing yards a year ago, and only five clubs rushed for more yards. However, the Dolphins ran the ball less than 30 times in each of the final five outings, including the playoff loss at Kansas City. The Jaguars’ run defense was ninth in the league in 2023, allowing 103.1 yards per game. Miami’s ground attack must be much more persistent.
Dolphins Player to Watch
Even with five-time All-Pro Tyreek Hill and talented playmaker Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins head into this opening-day clash with the Jaguars arguably a little shorthanded at wide receiver. That could mean a lot more throws the way of tight end Jonnu Smith, who Miami picked up early this offseason after he was cut loose by the Falcons. He will be playing for his third team in as many years and fourth franchise overall.
Smith played in all 17 games for Atlanta this past season and posted career-highs in catches (50), and receiving yards (582), to go along with three touchdowns. Last season, tight end Durham Smythe, a six-year pro, finished third on the team with 35 grabs, good for 366 yards. However, he did not catch a touchdown pass. In fact, it's worth noting that no Dolphins’ tight end hauled in a scoring pass in 2023.