There are no rocks to hide under when it comes to the drama playing out between the Miami Dolphins and the future of Tua Tagovailoa. Every NFL fan is watching this saga play out.
Jon-Eric Sullivan and Jeff Hafley don't want to retain the quarterback. They have options to move on, and Stephen Ross has given the green light, but at what cost?
Many believe the market for Tagovailoa will be light, but if we really think about it, that won't likely be the case. Tagovailoa may have a lot of downside, but he is still an NFL starting quarterback who can sling a football.
Tua Tagovailoa will have more suitors that Miami Dolphins fans realize
Let's just jump right into the crux of the entire Tagovailoa situation. His salary is horrible. The Dolphins can release him, trade him, or keep him, and all three options will cost roughly the same amount of money.
So sure, Tagovailoa is expensive for the Dolphins, but he won't be expensive for another team. That is a key point that many people are missing in this. All we hear is contract, money, contract, dead money, etc... For other teams? It's a mid-round draft pick at worst.
Trading a 5th-round pick for a starting quarterback with almost no salary cap hit to your team is a dream for those franchises needing a starting QB, or at the very least, someone to compete or fill the gap in developing a younger guy.
Teams like Cleveland, Arizona, and even Pittsburgh are all in the market for a quarterback. The Cardinals make a lot of sense if they move on from Kyler Murray. Murray is going to cost them a lot of dead money as well, which makes a trade for Tagovailoa more realistic because he won't cost them much.
The Falcons and Colts also make sense. Daniel Jones is coming off a season-ending injury, and the Falcons are likely to part ways with Kirk Cousins. Cheap options to fill in should their starters struggle or get injured.
The Dolphins are not going to have a problem finding a trade partner. It's a win/win situation for the team that gets him. He may turn his career around, but if not, they didn't pay him a lot and didn't give up a lot.
We can't stress this enough; Tagovailoa will be an attractive addition for more than a few teams because he costs them nothing. This won't happen overnight because Sullivan is going to try to get another team to take on as much of his contract as they can.
This is where Ross comes into the picture. The owner has to clear the deal. It will cost him money no matter what happens, but some owners don't want to pay a player's contract when he's playing elsewhere, especially at this level.
The Dolphins may want to wait until after June 1st, when the hit will be a little less and spread out over the next two seasons, but any team interested in him will want him available for the entire offseason. It's a carrot to dangle, but not a very healthy-looking one.
I suspect a move will be made, in principle, at the NFL Combine, which starts next week, and then announced just ahead of the free agent market opening. It won't be some blockbuster move; it will be a loud thud for a franchise that invested more money in a single player than at any time in their history and lost it all.
The key to all of this is simple. Miami needs to find a way to eat less money than they would if they release him. Ideally, not having to drown themselves in $99 million dead cap space would be the starting point. If they can find a team that is willing to take on even a small portion of that amount, the deal will get done more quickly.