What are the Dolphins' realistic chances of making the playoffs?

The Miami Dolphins are a hot mess right now, and the return of Tua Tagovailoa did nothing to change the outcome of the game. They simply found another way to lose.

This week, the Buffalo Bills will host the Dolphins, and what should have been a mid-season battle for control of the AFC East is instead a fight for the Dolphins' playoff future in 2024. A loss this week will not eliminate them officially, but it will take them one step closer to folding it in.

Seven teams will make the playoffs in the AFC—four division winners and three Wild Card teams. With a loss to the Bills on Sunday, the Dolphins would all but give up any hopes of an AFC East title. The Dolphins would essentially fall six games back, given the Bills would hold the tie-breaker, and there would only be nine games left.

Week 9 will begin the process of eliminating the fringe teams, as the second half of the season will start weeding out those pretenders who thus far have gotten lucky or have held out hopes of making the season worthwhile. For all intents and purposes, the Dolphins are in a five-team race for what will be three spots.

Dolphins still have an outside shot at making playoffs entering Week 9

Currently, the Broncos, Ravens, and Chargers hold the Wild Card spots. The Chargers have four wins, the Colts are in the eighth spot with four wins, and the Bengals are in the ninth spot with three. Miami can't beat the Colts in a head-to-head tie, but if it is going to make the postseason, it shouldn't matter; the Dolphins have to win a lot more than a few games.

The wild-card teams will all likely end the season with at least 10 wins. That would mean Miami must win eight of its remaining 10 games.

After losing to the Cardinals, Tagovailoa was asked about the Dolphins' ability to turn around the season and make the playoffs. He still believes, but given the state of the team and the other teams ahead of them, it is going to take a small miracle to do so.

Miami is hanging on to a proverbial thread, and if it loses to the Bills on Sunday, it would almost have to run the table and win out the rest of the year to get into the playoff discussion. It might be time to start talking about the 2025 NFL Draft.