The Miami Dolphins' 0-4 record is what many fans expected up to this point, yet it's a bit of a harsh indicator of where the team is and how they've looked. For such a shorthanded roster, the Fins are putting up a legitimate fight.
Miami was a bad roster before De'Von Achane's season-ending injury. In their first full game without him, the Dolphins almost beat the Vikings in Minnesota in Week 4, losing by a score of 15-10.
Moral victories aren't usually a thing in the NFL. For these Dolphins, they absolutely are. And there's a legitimate reason to believe they can shock the world and beat the Bengals at home in Week 5.
The Miami Dolphins are better than their winless record suggests
Don't those four losses to begin the year not look so bad anymore? Shoot, even Week 1's defeat in Las Vegas is a bit of a brownie points situation, because the 3-1 Raiders only lost to another Miami opponent, the 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the 2-2 Bengals' two wins to start the season were against the Bucs and Texans, who are a combined 0-8.
The only game the Dolphins weren't really competitive in was at San Francisco, against the 4-0 49ers. Oh, and the Vikings, despite their dreadful offense, have yet to lose either.
Despite the Vikings possessing the ball for over 39 minutes this last Sunday, Zach Sieler had two sacks, and the Dolphins had four as a team after recording zero in the prior three games. But again, that figure looks better in the context that 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy has taken zero sacks against anyone so far.
Maybe Miami's defense is a little beaten down from Week 4's Herculean effort. I'd say they'll be fired up to have some home cooking at Hard Rock Stadium, and what they do best is actually a great formula for knocking off Cincinnati.
Dolphins have the run-stopping prowess to keep Joe Burrow in constant dropback situations
As the resident FanSided Bengals expert, I can't help but think about what could've been if Cincinnati had found a way to draft Jacob Rodriguez. Not that I'm disappointed in Cashius Howell, but the Bengals have a serious linebacker problem, and Rodriguez is a legit Rookie of the Year candidate.
Anyway, Rodriguez is a tackling machine alongside Jordyn Brooks in the Dolphins' linebacker corps. In fact, Miami's front seven has done a stellar job defending the run to date, yielding only 3.6 yards per carry.
For the uninitiated, the Bengals have a terrible running game. Chase Brown had 10 yards on nine carries in a five-point home loss to Jacksonville.
Joe Burrow is also potentially going to be down his top two wide receivers, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Between the quality of Miami's run defense, the Bengals' unwillingness to commit to the run, and their undermanned receiving corps, Burrow will likely be forced into a ton of obvious dropback passing situations.
If that ain't a recipe for pulling off an upset, I don't know what is.
The Malik Willis-Ollie Gordon II rushing combo could spell trouble for Cincinnati
Another common struggle for the Bengals in recent years: Tackling on defense. That's kind of the whole objective on that side of the ball, so not being good at it is hard for fans to watch. It's also an area Jacob Rodriguez thrives in. But I digress.
The point is, Malik Willis is among the elite rushing quarterbacks in the NFL. Ollie Gordon II may not boast De'Von Achane's explosiveness, but he's a powerful, physical runner who sheds arm tackles with ease.
I'm not confident that Cincinnati's back seven can corral Willis in the open field. Nor am I confident that whenever Gordon gets to the second level, he won't shrug off multiple tackling "attempts" by certain Bengals.
For as solid as Cincinnati's new-look defensive line is, the team is yielding 4.5 yards per carry. No bueno. Well, bueno for the Dolphins and their hopes for victory!
Chris Bell is due to break out after Week 4's close call in Minnesota
With Malik Washington drawing Dax Hill in coverage when he's in the slot, and DJ Turner when he's on the boundary, there should be ample opportunity for Chris Bell to shine.
If you look at last week's box score, Bell's goose egg on three targets looks bad. However, the Vikings dominated time of possession to the point where Willis only attempted 17 passes.
Bell shook loose down the sideline on a scramble drill and raced to the end zone for a long TD. Unfortunately, the rookie just barely stepped out of bounds prior to making the catch, so it didn't count. That TD would've sent Bell's stock through the roof and Willis' passer rating with it.
Despite still shaking off the rust from his ACL recovery, Bell showed he has breakaway speed in Minnesota. His big frame and dynamic athleticism will give the Bengals' perimeter CB2 combo of D.J. Ivey and Tacario Davis all they can handle.
...I have a feeling Bell will find the end zone at least once. And that may be all Miami needs, paired with a rushing TD or two from Willis and Gordon, to emerge victorious.
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