Start/Sit: Dolphins Fantasy Football Preview Week 16

The Dolphins can clinch their first playoff berth in eight years this week, but the Bills will be a much tougher challenge for them than the Jets were. Against another tough defense, are there any Dolphins worth starting in fantasy football leagues?

The Miami Dolphins proved me wrong last week. Not that I expected the Dolphins to lose or anything, but I thought it would have been more of a grind game in the cold weather. That thought led me to believe that it was not a good idea to target Miami players in fantasy football leagues. After a slow start, however, Miami took over the game and ended up dismantling the Jets 34-13.

Matt Moore

No one proved me wrong more last week than Matt Moore. Moore was an easy fade in my eyes, but had me eating my words after his four-touchdown performance. It was good enough to earn him AFC Offensive Player of the Week. The Jets pass defense is awful, however, and the team overall has looked lackluster in recent weeks. Buffalo, on the other hand, is a much better team despite their struggles since the beginning of the year. The Bills allow just 224.8 passing yards per game, 8th best in the league. A repeat performance is not realistic, and Moore is again an easy fade in all formats to me. I’ll have to change my tune though if he makes me eat my words yet again.

Sit

Jay Ajayi

Ajayi’s fantasy value has taken a huge dip since the last time these two teams met. As you know, Ajayi recorded his second consecutive 200-yard game against the Bills in Week 7. In that game, Ajayi averaged 7.6 yards per carry on 28 attempts. In Miami’s last four games, however, Ajayi is averaging under 3.0 yards a carry, and just 14.75 attempts per game. The loss of Mike Pouncey at center has had a strong impact on Ajayi’s ability to get to the 2nd level of the defense. Miami hopes to get the run game going against Buffalo, who is giving up 124.4 rushing yards a game, 6th most in the league. While we could see a lot of carries for Ajayi, and his success from their previous meeting makes this look like an enticing matchup, I don’t view Ajayi as a must-start.

Sit

Jarvis Landry / DeVante Parker / Kenny Stills

Despite his terrific performance, Matt Moore completed just 12 pass attempts last week. Of course, when a 1/3 of them go for touchdowns, it’s not necessary to complete many more. The lack of completions, however, made it difficult to spread around to Miami’s top receivers.

Jarvis Landry benefited the most, with the bulk of his production coming off of a 66-yard touchdown pass in the 3rd quarter. The touchdown helped him go over the 100-yard mark for the 2nd consecutive week. Landry has reclaimed his position as Miami’s #1 receiver after it appeared Parker may be taking it over. Even in a tough matchup, Landry should find success against Buffalo’s secondary. I may look for other options first in standard leagues, but he’s worth a start in PPR.

Parker had great success when the Dolphins were on the West Coast, but since then has been almost nonexistent. Against the Jets, Parker recorded just one catch for 17 yards, and hasn’t had more than three receptions in any of Miami’s last four games. Parker is more equipped as a boom-or-bust player in GPP tournaments, but I would personally fade him in any format.

Stills is only relevant in fantasy leagues when he scores. The good news is that he’s scored in three of Miami’s last four games, and leads Dolphins receivers in touchdowns (7) despite a low reception total (35). His lone catch last week was a 52-yard deep pass that went the distance and gave Miami their first lead of the game. Stills had his best game of the season against Buffalo earlier this year with five receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown. It was his only 100-yard game of the season. While I wouldn’t dare insert Stills into my fantasy lineup for the league championship, I’d consider rolling the dice on him in DFS formats.

Landry – Start

Parker – Sit

Stills – Start (DFS only)

Dion Sims

Sims had a great game last Saturday, recording two touchdowns off of four receptions. Both touchdowns were 1-yard grabs, possibly hinting that the Dolphins could look his way more in the red zone with Matt Moore as the quarterback. I still need to see more from Sims to become a believer, but all four of his touchdowns on the season have come within the last four games. If he can continue that kind of production this week I’ll look at Sims more in daily plays, but like Stills, Sims needs to score in order to be fantasy relevant.

Sit

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