The NFL Combine doesn’t necessarily translate to on-field NFL success
By George Keim
The NFL Combine will be the talk of the NFL and its fans over the next week. The question is, does the combine really matter?
For draft prospects attending the NFL Combine they will be poked and prodded as well as timed, weighed and measured. The question becomes, what does all this data mean? Does it equate to success on the field? Most people say no but there has to be some merit in it otherwise why do it.
Let’s look at 2019’s top seven combine performers, based on Next Gen Stats, and see how they performed once the pads went on. Next-Gen scored the players on a scale of 1-100 based on their results in the various drills and statistics.
Montez Sweat (99 - Next Gen Score) – Defensive End – Sweat was drafted in the first round (#26 overall) by the Washington Redskins. At the combine, Sweat ran the 40 yard dash in a time of 4.41 seconds, the fastest time by a defensive lineman since 2003. Overall Sweat finished in the top 8 in every category he participated in. How did this translate to the field? Sweat had a good year. He finished the season with 50 total tackles that included 7 sacks. He also had 13 QB hits as well as 2 forced fumbles and 2 passes defensed.
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Ben Bangou (99 – Next Gen Score) – Defensive Line – Bangou was drafted in the second round (#49 overall) by the Indianapolis Colts. Bangou led his position group at both the broad jump and vertical jump, two drills that typically show a player’s explosiveness. He also ran the 6th fastest 40-yard dash. Unfortunately, this grade didn’t translate to the field. Bangou played in only 26 percent of the Colts defensive snaps in 16 games. This netted him only 11 total tackles and 2 ½ sacks.
Rashan Gary (99 – Next Gen Score) – Defensive Line – Rashan Gary was the 12th overall pick in the 1st round. Gary posted the fastest 40 yard dash time of any player over 275 pounds since the combine results became official in 2003 (4.58 seconds). Gary also had top 7 performances in both the vertical jump and broad jump. Again though, these impressive numbers didn’t equate to on-field success. Gary played in all 16 games (24 percent of defensive snaps) for the Green Bay Packers recording just 21 tackles and 2 sacks.
Isaiah Johnson (98 – Next Gen Score) – Defensive Back – Isaiah Johnson was drafted by the Las Vegas (then Oakland) Raiders in the 4th round (#129 overall) Johnson put up first-round numbers at the combine. He ran a 4.40 seconds 40-yard dash and finished second, third and fifth in the short shuttle, long jump and 3-cone drill respectively. Unfortunately for Johnson, he was put on the injured reserve list in September. He got activated from that list in November and returned to play in five games for the Raiders. In those five games, Johnson played in just 14 snaps.
Jamel Dean (98 – Next Gen Score) – Defensive Back – Jamel Dean ran the second-fastest 40 times at the combine in 2019 clocking a blazing 4.30 seconds. He also performed well in both the broad jump and vertical jump. Dean was selected in the third round at #94 overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dean played in 13 games for the Bucs, playing 33 percent of the defensive snaps. He was fairly productive during his time on the field finishing with 21 tackles, 2 interceptions and 17 passes defensed. Overall not a bad season when considering he was a 3rd round draft choice.
Brian Burns (97 – Next Gen Score) – Defensive End – Brian Burns was drafted 16th overall in the first round by the Carolina Panthers. Burns played in all 16 games for the Panthers and put up good numbers. He finished the year with 25 tackles which included 7.5 sacks. He also chipped in 16 quarterback hits as well as one scoop and score fumble recovery for a touchdown. Burns was also a good performer at the NFL Combine. At 249 pounds he ran a 4.53 forty yard dash and also performed well in the 3-cone drill and broad jump. Burns’ play on the field lived up to his first-round combine numbers.
Zedrick Woods (97 – Next Gen Score) – Defensive Back – Want to know who ran a faster 40-yard dash than Jamel Dean? Well, it was this guy. Woods clocked the fastest time at the combine last year posting a 4.29 forty yard dash. As you might expect he also tested very well in the broad jump, 3-cone drill and short shuttle. Even after posting an eye-popping 40-time Zedrick Woods went undrafted. He was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Jacksonville Jaguars following the draft, but in a bizarre move retired prior to the start of the regular season. Woods never played a snap in the regular season last year. Many speculate that it was a chronic turf toe that spurred this move.
As you can see, while the NFL Combine is useful in getting a look at draft-eligible players, it is not the be-all-end-all. Out of the seven top performers at last year’s combine, only three were what I could call contributors on the field in their rookie years. (Sweat, Dean, Burns) So we should definitely keep an eye on the combine and the numbers players put up, but make sure you also take them with a grain of salt.