The obsession with the Miami Dolphins drafting D’Andre Swift in round one
It seems like every week another mock draft pops up predicting the Miami Dolphins will take running back D’Andre Swift in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
SI.com’s Matt De Lima ‘thinks’ it. NFL Network analysts Peter Schrager, Charles Davis and Maurice Jones-Drew have all ‘said’ it. Even ESPN expert Mel Kiper Jr ‘predicts’ it. Why? Georgia running back D’Andre Swift will be selected by the Miami Dolphins in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
The question that needs to be asked is “Why?”
More successful?
First-round running backs must be more likely to be successful than backs drafted in later rounds, right?
Did you know that the top leaders in rushing in 2019 (excluding QB Lamar Jackson) consisted of four 1st round picks, four 2nd round picks, a 4th round pick and a 7th round pick*?
High priority for the Dolphins?
When you think about what has held the Dolphins back from being successful in the last 10 years, where does the running back position rank? Higher than the offensive line? Quarterback? Defensive line? Cornerback/Safety?
In truth, all those positions have been and, with the exception of cornerback, continue to be higher priority needs for the team than running back. So why should the Dolphins spend a premium pick on a position that is probably the 5th/6th need on the team?
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The answer is they shouldn’t. There is really no disputing that Swift is the best back in this year’s class but there are at least three other backs (Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, and Cam Akers) who project to be top-quality runners. Waiting till the second round for a running back allows the Dolphins to take a high-quality player at a more important position.
Who knows…it’s possible that Swift could still be there at 39.
*By the way, that seventh-round pick I mentioned earlier was Seattle running back Chris Carson (249th overall in 2017). He was selected 222 picks later than the Seahawks first-round pick Rashaad Penny (28th overall in 2018).