It seems pretty unanimous among the “talking heads” of ESPN and NFL Network, Miami Dolphins Chris Grier is the “chess master” who turned the Laremy Tunsil trade into three first-round picks, two second-rounders, and a third. While there is no debating that the Dolphins made out very well, overall, in that trade, it’s the two most recent trades that I have mixed feelings about. For those that may have been really busy this week and missed it, let’s recap what the Dolphins did on Friday.
First, Grier shipped the 3rd overall pick to San Francisco for picks 12 and 102 in this year’s draft and the 49ers first-round picks in 2022 and 2023. Shortly thereafter, the Dolphins traded up with Philadelphia; acquiring pick 6 but giving up their own first-round pick in 2022. (The teams also swapped 4th and 5th round selections but that’s trivial for our purposes here.)
At the end of the day, the Dolphins essentially traded down from 3rd to 6th this year and got a third-round pick this year and SF first-round pick in 2023; and they swapped their first-round pick next year for San Francisco’s.
Is that a ‘net win’? Yes.
Could they have done better? Maybe
In 2016: Cleveland received 3rd and 4th round picks in 2016, 1st round pick in 2017, a 2nd (in 2018), a 3rd to move up from #2 to #8 where Philadelphia selected QB Carson Wentz. Philly also got a ‘compensatory’ 4th round pick in 2017; which was essentially a 5th round pick.
In 2018: Indy received two early 2nd round picks in 2018 and a 2nd rounder in 2018 to move back from #3 to #6 and the Jets drafted QB Sam Darnold.
While I like the trade with San Francisco, is GM Chris Grier sure that teams like Detroit and Carolina wouldn’t have offered a similar deal on draft night? If they did, the Dolphins get the same package to move back to pick 7 or 8 and don’t have to spend any of it to move back up.
Even if the Dolphins accept the 49’ers offer, why not wait until draft night to move back up? The fewer picks the team has to move up, the less it will cost.
More from Dolphins Draft
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- The Miami Dolphins should not take a running back in the draft
- Predicting five NFL draft night trades for the first round
- Looking ahead to the 2023 NFL Draft for the Miami Dolphins
The one way that the Dolphins come out of doing this so early is if teams begin to line up for the 6th pick and the Dolphins can turn that pick into more than what they gave up to Philadelphia. With quarterbacks expected to at least go in the first three selections, it’s possible that the Dolphins’ new pick becomes valuable. It’s also possible that Atlanta selects the fourth quarterback and then the 6th pick has very little trade value. If that’s the case, then the Dolphins probably overpaid to move back up into this spot.
Chris Grier has access to information that fans don’t and he gets paid ‘the big bucks’ to make these decisions. Did he make the right move?