The Miami Dolphins face an uphill battle in Week 15, as they must contend with the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers on the road in sub-freezing temperatures. Add in the Steelers' remarkable record at home on Monday Night Football, and this game was shaping up to be their toughest test in months.
In a twist of fate, however, Pittsburgh will now have to defend its home turf without its franchise player. Star edge rusher T.J. Watt has been ruled out for MNF with a lung injury, one he suffered during a dry needling treatment at the Steelers' facility. His brother and CBS analyst J.J. Watt confirmed the news early on Friday, and his timetable for a return is unclear.
Not having to contend with Watt is a huge break for Miami, and it may be enough of a swing for the underdogs to walk out of the Steel City with a win.
Miami Dolphins have prime opportunity for an upset after Steelers lose T.J. Watt
It can't be understated how much of an impact Watt has had for the Steelers over his career. Forget all of the All-Pros and the Defensive Player of the Year trophy; the best example of his impact is the team's record without him.
Watt has missed 11 regular-season games in his career, and the Steelers are an embarrassing 1-10 in those contests. That is nearly a season's worth of evidence that Watt is their most valuable player by a wide margin.
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The Dolphins were already going to have a solid chance at pulling off the upset, thanks to their dynamic rushing attack that has developed in recent weeks. Without having to game plan for Watt as both a pass rusher and an edge-setter in the run game, it will open up what head coach Mike McDaniel can do from a play-calling perspective.
Offenses often run away from Watt, even leaving him unblocked at times, to add more bodies to the play side of running plays. Without him on the field, the entire playbook is available to put De'Von Achane and the rest of the Miami backs in the best position to succeed.
Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith are still great pass rushers, so the Dolphins' passing game will still be a potential liability in this game. Much like last week, however, Tua Tagovailoa may not have to do much if the run game and defense can dominate. It won't be as easy as it was against the Jets, but the same game plan could be enough to escape Pittsburgh with a fifth-straight win.