Almost everything that could have gone right for the Miami Dolphins in Week 17 did. The only thing that could have been better was if the Los Angeles Chargers would have lost.
With one more week to go, the Dolphins find themselves alive and in the hunt, but their chances haven't increased exponentially.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Dolphins' chances of making the playoffs with Sunday's win are hovering at 31%, but the good news is that they only need two things to happen. If Miami beats the New York Jets and the Denver Broncos lose to the Kansas City Chiefs, it will clinch a wild-card berth.
Kansas City could sit most of its starters in the final week, but it will still want to play hard to keep a division rival out of the postseason.
Dolphins pull within one game of playoff spots entering final week
Here's the updated AFC playoff standings after the Dolphins' important win over the Cleveland Browns:
Playoff Seed | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
No. 1 | Chiefs | 15-1 (Clinched) |
No. 2 | Bills | 13-3 (Clinched) |
No. 3 | Ravens | 11-5 (Clinched) |
No. 4 | Texans | 9-7 (Clinched) |
No. 5 | Steelers | 10-6 (Clinched) |
No. 6 | Chargers | 10-6 (Clinched) |
No. 7 | Broncos | 9-7 |
In the hunt
The Dolphins have moved into the No. 8 spot and only trail the Broncos by one game. The Indianapolis Colts are eliminated, leaving three teams in the mix for the final spot, including the Dolphins.
Seed | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
No. 8 | Colts | 7-8 |
No. 9 | Dolphins | 7-8 |
Miami got help this weekend, with the Cincinnati Bengals beating the Broncos and the New York Giants eliminating the Colts.
If the Dolphins can't win next week against the Jets, it won't matter what the percentages are today. They would love nothing more than to knock Miami back to South Florida to start the offseason early.
Nothing else that can happen in the NFL next week can remove the Dolphins' chances. It comes down to Miami at New York and Kansas City at Denver.
While the Dolphins need Tua Tagovailoa back, they will also need Jaylen Waddle and Terron Armstead on the field. Waddle was out against the Browns, and Armstead hurt his knee midway through the game and did not return.