Miami Dolphins: 2020 NFL draft and one crazy draft plan!

We all know the Miami Dolphins have the most draft capital in the 2020 NFL draft. Is it time for Chris Grier to think outside the box and get crazy?

We know that great draft strategies can help a team develop long-term success. But, what about a different kind of draft strategy. I’m not talking about 40-yard dashes, shuttle times, bench presses or anything related to picking specific players. I’m talking about draft generalities and how Miami Dolphins GM Chris Grier can use them.

A recent article by George Keim with regards to the Miami Dolphins being poised for success mentioned success rates of first-round draft picks by when they were selected in the first round.

Generally, teams had a success rate (success being something akin to draft pick living up to draft value) of just over 50% in the first round. That wasn’t what I was expecting from first-round picks.

I started wondering about the success rates of players not selected in the first round and if 14 draft picks were worth all the hype? Is it possible to have too many picks in one draft?

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So, I started digging. If you want success, do what successful people do. I decided to look at the Patriots (ugh!) and how they’ve drafted the last decade or so.

One thing that stood out, in general, was how many draft picks the Patriots had, in particular early-round draft picks. In the last 10 years, the Patriots have had at least one extra pick in the first four rounds of every draft except one (2017).

They have had 12 picks twice, 11 picks, 10 picks 9 picks twice. Just last year they had 7 picks in the first four rounds with three 3rd round picks.

They’ve had two first-round picks twice. They’ve had 7 or more picks in every draft except two. But, they’ve never had 14 picks.

I think you get where I’m going. The Patriots covet draft picks, especially early picks.

This got me thinking even more. Could we spread this draft capital out over several years? And if we did, what would be the best way to go about it?

That’s when I ran across two articles written by Tony Villiotti. One article was about drafting in general and the other about draft probabilities.

In the articles, it indicated that 70% of league starters are drafted in the first three rounds. Most teams give their players a year or two to develop so I found one quote particularly interesting when it came to long-term success.

"There is practically no difference among first round selections in a player lasting five years in the league. The probability declines rapidly beginning late in the third round. – Tony Villiotti"

In addition, 80% of All-Pro and Pro Bowl selections came from the first three rounds with a full 50% coming from round one.

I came to the conclusion that the more draft picks in the first three rounds the better, not only better but way better, duh!

You cannot buy sustained success via free agency, the Dolphins have tried that. It doesn’t work.

In order to do stay good consistently year in and year out, I believe you need to have good drafts. Having extra picks in the early rounds would help most teams have good drafts.

So I came up with a solution. I wanted to think outside of the box, start a conversation among friends, and get everyone thinking in a different way.

I thought, why can’t we give ourselves better odds of sustained success by having 5 picks in the first three rounds FOREVER. Yes, in fact, I have gone nuts because I think it’s possible (so you’re saying there’s a chance!).

I have seen nothing to give a value of draft picks this year versus draft picks in future years. Rumor has it that a pick this year is worth a pick one round earlier next year. Although, I think the price is steeper as you get closer to the first round base on previous trades that I have looked at.

So here’s the plan. In order to achieve the goal of having 5 picks in the first three rounds every year, we should give up this year’s fourth-round pick (or maybe two fifth-round picks) for a third-round pick next year.