As Monday Night Football prepares to kick off tonight, the Miami Dolphins have a lot to prove. Even with a win, their playoff chances won't meaningfully change, but it doesn't mean there is nothing to play for. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the toughest opponents they have faced since their AFC East rival Buffalo Bills, and the conditions in the Steel City are the exact kind they have not been able to overcome.
The temperature at kick off is expected to be in the teens, a far cry from what Dolphins' players are used to. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, in particular, has struggled mightily in even relatively cold conditions. It took eight tries for him to win a start in temperatures below 46 degrees, which came last week against the New York Jets.
He is still 0-5 when the thermometer reads under 40 degrees, however. If Tagovailoa and the Dolphins want that conversation to stop coming up, this is their moment to do it.
Dolphins must continue to play their new physical brand of football Monday Night against the Steelers
The Dolphins defeated the Jets in Week 14 thanks to a shift in philosophy. So often since Mike McDaniel arrived in Miami, his focus has been spent on making a passing offense that maximizes the narrow skill set that his QB possesses. That led to the trade for Tyreek Hill, the lack of emphasis placed on the offensive line, and the over-reliance on the passing game creating explosive plays.
Cold weather has only worsened those issues in the past, but McDaniel has evolved his offense this season into a more physical one. Instead of leaning on the passing game to move the football, the rushing attack led by star running back De'Von Achane is now the engine that makes the offense go.
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That pivot is the primary reason for the team's turnaround after a 1-6 start, and it's also what allowed them to combat Tua's struggles in the cold against New York. That same game plan may not be as effective on MNF, considering the tougher opponent, but it gives them a much higher chance of victory than they typically would have.
Still, there is a big difference between 41 degrees and the sub-freezing temperatures they will face against Pittsburgh. Tagovailoa will need to hit more of his throws than he was asked to a week ago, and the defense won't be facing a combination of 36-year-old Tyrod Taylor and undrafted QB Brady Cook.
The Steelers also have literal decades of history on their side. They haven't lost at home on Monday night since before any current Dolphin's player was born.
Overall, this game is shaping up to be a memorable one. Despite the lack of any real consequences for Miami, the result of this game could have implications that extend far beyond 2025. A win would put years of questions about their lack of toughness to bed, and a loss would only deepen the belief that they can't overcome adverse conditions.